Disorder

In early August, one of the most powerful earthquakes ever recorded struck a sparsely populated region in Russia’s far east. It triggered a tsunami that started crossing the ocean, heading towards the coastlines of Japan, Hawaii, and the US west coast. Thankfully… due to successful and orderly global co-ordination, millions were evacuated and countless lives were saved. This week, Jane and Jason discuss the little-known field of ‘disaster risk’. They look at why we need global coordination for it to work properly, what treaties, and international bodies govern international disaster response, and what successful multilateral efforts in the space of ‘disaster risk’ can teach us about how to Order the Disorder in other domains. Producer: George McDonagh Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow Show Notes Links: For more on the ASRA Conference organisers - https://www.asranetwork.org/ How to save the world report co-authored by Jane https://europeanleadershipnetwork.org/report/how-to-save-the-world-influencing-policy-on-the-biggest-risks-to-humanity/ Florian Jehn on what helps societies and civilisations avoid major crises or collapse - https://existentialcrunch.substack.com/p/some-factors-that-could-help-societies Lara Mani’s charity, the Global Volcanic Risk Alliance - https://www.globalvolcanoriskalliance.com/ Read Jason’s article on An Orderly World Championships of Backgammon: https://ukbgf.com/an-orderly-world-championships-of-backgammon/  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It is our favourite time of the month. Jane and Jason take on the mega orderering listeners’ questions – focussing mostly on the Middle East, the Trump-Putin summit, and any rays of ordering hope that might be on the horizon. They look at the unlikely role of UN peacekeeping forces in the West Bank, whether the UK, Australia, and France recognising Palestinian Statehood would help anything, and ways to unblock potential pathways to peace in Gaza. Plus: why Trump wants his summit with Putin, the increasing role of disinformation in democracies and finally, as always we try to Order the Disorder by offer some rays hope as to where there could be some Order in our mad mad mad mad world. Jason proposes that people power might be the answer and teasers his forthcoming book project. Producer: George McDonagh Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ And Join the paid substack to hear Jason’s story about Israelis behaving badly in Monaco and how it is a metaphor for their isolation globally and the resentment that that breeds. Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow Show Notes Links: Listen to Jason on BBC Radio Five Live (from 45:40) https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m002gzxy  Read The Limits of Recognition - The Atlantic https://apple.news/AX2K3dnwnQBy2oE9J40g7Eg  The New York declaration of the recent UN conference on a two-state solution in Israel Palestine https://press.un.org/en/2025/pal2250.doc.htm  Read Russia and Ukraine must seek a proper framework for talks, says Juan Manuel Santos https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2025/07/25/russia-and-ukraine-must-seek-a-proper-framework-for-talks-says-juan-manuel-santos  Read How to End the Russia-Ukraine War by Thomas Graham https://www.cfr.org/article/how-end-russia-ukraine-war  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Like it or not, Trump and his surreal version of a libertarian patrimonial America is reshaping the world. At least in what the FT’s Janan Ganesh dubs “the high summer of Donald Trump”. I teamed up with Andrew Keen of the ‘Keen On America’ Podcast to discuss Big Tech and the need for Big Government to regulate it. Andrew thinks Government and international treaties can’t be the answer. I disagree thinking that they can.  I argued that while Trump may be achieving tactical wins through short-term disruptions—from ending the Iran-Israel conflict to forcing favorable trade negotiations—this approach fundamentally undermines the strategic international coordination needed to address existential challenges like AI regulation, climate change, and systemic economic and military competition with China. Without coherent global governance structures, I predict, we're sleepwalking into a long-term disordered world where private tech giants wield more power than governments themselves. Trump’s high summer of disorder could degenerate into an apocalyptic winter of our collective discontent. As we Ordered the Disorder, I advocated for a Missing "NATO for AI" arguing that we desperately need international coordination structures to govern AI development, data storage, and energy infrastructure. Without treaty-based cooperation among democracies, we're ceding control to either authoritarian regimes or unaccountable private companies. Producer: George McDonagh Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow  Show Notes Links: Listen to Keen On America especially about how AI and Big Tech is reshaping today’s geopolitical fault lines: https://podcasts.apple.com/sa/podcast/ai-is-too-busy-to-take-your-job-the-electrifying/id1710656849?i=1000719075185  Explore the Keen On Substack: https://substack.com/@keenon?  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As Ukraine and Russia master new forms of drone warfare, are NATO and Europe being left behind? Is the West willfully clinging to older 20th century ways of equipping and preparing for war? In this episode, Arthur Snell is joined by Matthew Savill, the Director of Military Sciences at RUSI. They focus on developments and trends in contemporary conflict and investigate new trends in the use of force in the mid-21st Century. The duo discuss Ukraine's rapid innovation in drone technology, the challenges NATO faces in integrating the newer forms of air power with its ground forces, Britain’s lack of preparedness at the Corp level, and the shifting dynamics of US commitment to NATO.  And as they Order the Disorder, Matthew expresses a need for European countries to enhance their military capabilities and boost overall readiness – and the need to spend large amounts of money to achieve those objectives. This episode is truly a master class in the dynamics of modern warfare that many consumers of news will miss beyond the headlines. Producer: George McDonagh Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow  Show Notes Links: For more on our RUSI partnership visit: https://www.rusi.org/podcast-series/disorder-podcast  Watch Is Trump losing MAGA over Epstein? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEiX7chStSY  Watch Jason Pack play in the Final of the World Championship of Speedgammon:  https://youtu.be/Z8Nk_5V8RXM?si=NTUhPU-Z_ghhakne Follow Arthur’s Behind the Lines Pod: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/behind-the-lines-with-arthur-snell/id1704344656  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

For as long as there’s been wars and diplomacy, there have been spies. Some call it the world’s second oldest profession. But from their peak during the Cold War until now have the West’s spying capabilities declined? And how is spying and subterfuge being used in the Ukraine War? As part of our partnership with the New Books Network, Jason is joined this week by former MI-6 agent, Charles Beaumont. Charles is the pseudonym author of the bestselling spy thriller, ‘A Spy at War.’ He and Jason discuss the current scope of influence operations in the context of the Ukraine War. They discuss how Kyiv was a nest of spies at the start of that War and why the Russian intelligence agents got it all wrong when they thought that Kyiv was theirs for that taking. They also delve into the historical and contemporary roles of intelligence in shaping the politics of the post-Soviet space, the effectiveness of Western intelligence agencies, and the moral complexities of espionage. And as they Order the Disorder – they discuss the need for stronger soft power by Britain, and the idea for the UN to develop its own intelligence agency. Producer: George McDonagh Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow  Show Notes Links: Buy A Spy at War - https://www.amazon.co.uk/Spy-War-Oxford-Ring-espionage/dp/1804364800  Read Jason’s review of A Spy at War - https://www.thecipherbrief.com/book-review/when-espionage-meets-tiktok  New Books Network - https://newbooksnetwork.com/category/up-partners/disorder Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It’s that time of the month (ha), as we take listener questions!  Jason and Jane discuss why the Epstein scandal WILL genuinely hurt Trump with his conspiracy loving base, the complexities of the UK’s independent nuclear deterrent, the multilateralism of any new Iran nuclear deal, the implications of blowback from Trump's conspiratorial scaremongering, and if the Russians have the ability to escalate the ongoing conflict in Ukraine or if they are ‘maxed out’.  Plus we handle eloquent verbiage from very verbose mega-orderers’ questions: we revisit why neopopulists like Trump are thin skinned and can be hoist on the petards of the own rhetoric, cognitive biases affecting political decision-making, the role of psychology in diplomacy, the future of US-Canada relations and the tragic humanitarian crisis in Gaza. As Jane and Jason Order the Disorder, as always, they end emphasizing the need for innovative win-win solutions to these multifaceted challenges. As always pls write us at Disordershow@gmail.com and pls rate and review the pod giving us 5 stars... Thanks Producer: George McDonagh Subscribe to our Substack for exclusive question from Suzette about the Druze in Syria and the historic resonances of Israel’s interventions on behalf of the Druze - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow  Show Notes Links: Jason on the Epstein Scandal and why it exposes Trump’s hypocrisy to his own supporters in ways that his other nefarious actions do not: https://metro.co.uk/2025/07/24/donald-trumps-epstein-files-problem-wont-go-away-will-next-23741815/  Good background on the UK’s independent nuclear deterrent - https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/03/uks-nuclear-deterrent-relies-us-support-there-are-no-other-easy-alternatives  Letter to the Prime Minister calls for the UK to recognise Palestinian statehood - https://una.org.uk/letter-prime-minister-calls-uk-recognise-palestinian-statehood-4  Listen to our episode with Marcel Dirsus: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/bcd89a117331e217c82af1d018e28d9e  Get Marcel’s book at https://www.hachette.co.uk/titles/marcel-dirsus/how-tyrants-fall/9781399809481/  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We’ve heard about Putin bluffing. Abraham Lincoln was an accomplished poker player and Churchill dabbled at chess. But to our mind it is Backgammon that best reflects both politics and life decisions. It’s a game of skill, luck, reversals and socializing. So could world leaders use Backgammon to help them develop their empathy, strategic thinking, resilience, and make better decisions? In this conversation, Jason Pack is joined by Marc Olsen – fellow Backgammon Grandmaster, former professional footballer, and the CEO and Founder of Backgammon Galaxy. Together they explore the multifaceted world of Backgammon. They unpack how it is a metaphor for life, decision-making, and the balance between order and disorder.  They discuss Marc's journey from professional football to becoming the CEO of Backgammon Galaxy, the conformism of Scandinavian society, and how a rebellious nature led Marc to discover Austrian school economics. Plus: the emotional aspects of learning through games, the relevance of game theory in the Enduring Disorder, and the unique features of Backgammon that make it a rich learning experience. And as they Order they Disorder – how Backgammon can foster empathy and social skills, and the potential of Backgammon as a tool for cross-cultural connection, especially in the Middle Eastern region. Producer: George McDonagh Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow  Show Notes Links: For more on Backgammon Galaxy visit - https://www.backgammongalaxy.com/  To watch the 2024 World Backgammon Championship Final commentated by Marc: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6d7-ky1bROk  For a very fun video produced by Marc and featuring Jason about the World Backgammon Championship: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TebkgCNS7OI  For Marc on the Gentleman Scofflaw podcast - https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-gentleman-scofflaw-podcast/id1216891117?i=1000650103880  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Each time someone wants to become a British Citizen, they have to pass the ‘Life In The UK’ Test. The aspiring Britisher (such as Jason) might hope that this test would be comprised of a series of questions that would highlight Britain’s role as a global orderer, help prospective citizens understand the intricacies of British queuing culture and provide insights into how to pay council tax, or get on the ballot for Wimbledon tickets… but in reality: the test is about as Disorderly as the world is currently. In this episode, Jane and Jason discuss the intricacies and absurdities of Jason’s experience taking the Life in the UK test. Jason quizzes Jane on what he was made to learn about the supposed essentials of British life, with questions such as: what is a Welsh cake made from? Who won against the Vikings? And ‘what many of crosses compose the Union Flag? [sic]’  And on a serious note, they discuss the very special intellectual contribution of Scots to global civilization and –as they Order the Disorder – they talk about whether Britain can be a convening power – and a genuine Mega Orderer in the mid 21st century world. Producer: George McDonagh Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow  Show Notes Links: Recipe for Welsh cakes: https://www.bbc.co.uk/food/recipes/welsh_cakes_16706  Can YOU pass a UK citizenship test? Brits joke they 'better pack their bags' after struggling to answer the general knowledge questions:  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-14849235/Can-YOU-pass-UK-citizenship-test-Brits-joke-better-pack-bags-struggling-answer-general-knowledge-questions.html  More than half of the population are unable to pass the UK citizenship test - but how well would YOU do?  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13584185/more-than-half-of-the-population-are-unable-to-pass-the-uk-citizenship-test-but-how-well-would-you-do.html  Wha’s like us? Damn few’ and they’re A’ deid: https://www.robbiemactours.co.uk/whas-like-us-damn-few-and-theyre-a-deid/   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The UN is demonstrably powerless in Gaza; unable to facilitate elections in Libya; and blocked by Russia from doing anything meaningful on major issues, like Ukraine, Climate Change, Tarriffs, or the Arctic. Is International Diplomacy Dead? Where is the UN in pushing back against Trump? Is there any way that countries can finally put their differences aside on major divisive issues -- like Ukraine and Gaza -- but work together on other more unifying ones – like kleptocracy and climate change – and finally Order the Disorder? To find out, Jason is joined by Stephanie Williams – Former top United Nations mediator and a senior American diplomat. Stephanie served as the Special Adviser to the Secretary General on Libya, as well as acting UN SRSG/Special Envoy to Libya. She is the author of an excellent and highly detailed new book on international diplomacy, ‘Libya Since Qaddafi: Chaos and the Search for Peace’. As with Jason’s own book, Stephanie’s is with Hurst/OUP, by far the best publishers of cutting edge books on Libya.  The duo delve into the effectiveness of the UN and the international community in addressing global conflicts, particularly focusing on Libya. Plus they tackle: the complexities of state building, the Disordering influence of Russia on the operations of the UN, the impact of US foreign policy on Libya, and why incoherence and coordination complexities within the West makes it nearly impossible to do diplomacy anymore. And as they Order the Disorder, Jason and Stephanie propose genuine things Steve Witkoff and others can do to formulate a more unified approach to major issues of the day. Producer: George McDonagh Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow  Show Notes Links: Get Stephanie Williams’ book, Libya Since Qaddafi: Chaos and the Search for Peace - https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/libya-since-qaddafi/  Get Jason’s book Libya and the Global Enduring Disorder - https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/libya-and-the-global-enduring-disorder/  Watch Why Regime Change in Iran is Impossible - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UlX5_mp1JWc   Listen back to Ep4. Who is leading the disorder? https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/9ebdc18174d18cb019d148053a98e287  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In his roll as UK Foreign Secretary, David Lammy has often talked of his concept of progressive realism, but what does that mean? And how has that impacted British foreign policy over the past 12 months? In this episode of Disorder, Alex Hall Hall and Arthur Snell delve into the complexities of British diplomacy over the past year – offering a grade point for each area of British foreign policy. They assess the UK's relationships with the US and EU, the implications of NATO and defense strategies, their dealings with Ukraine amidst the ongoing conflict with Russia and the government's response to the humanitarian crisis in the Middle East.  To close – and Order the Disorder – the pair express the need for a clearer vision in foreign policy, greater engagement with the Global South, and a clearer moral backbone from Starmer and co. Producer: George McDonagh Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow  Show Notes Links: Read ‘Keir Starmer Has Missed His Chance to Make a Bold Break With the Past on Foreign Policy’ by Alex Hall Hall: https://bylinetimes.com/2025/06/27/labour-foreign-policy-report-card/  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices