In 2024, the Disorder podcast looked a lot at Ukraine, Syria, Israel-Palestine, India, Bangledesh, and even north Africa… but we didn’t devote sufficient time to sub-saharan Africa. So what does Africa look like in the Age of Disorder?  To find out, Jason is joined this week by Professor Clionadh Raleigh. Cliona created Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) which is a US-based NGO. She is also Professor of Political Violence and Geography in the School of Global Studies at the University of Sussex in the UK.  The duo discuss, how the Second Trump administration with its proposals for tariffs and increased tensions with China might affect Africa. And then muse on the roles of middle powers like Nigeria and Ethiopia in a disordered world, highlighting their internal challenges and regional influences.   Then they turn their attention to the civil war in Sudan, the impact of external forces like the Wagner Group in that region, and the future of American policy towards Africa amidst these challenges. And as they Order the Disorder, Clionadh suggests that we need for a nuanced understanding of local politics and the impact of external influences on African stability, and that women and girls need to be supported as part of this.  Plus, we announce the start of our new partnership with the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). The world’s oldest and the UK’s leading defence and security think tank. As part of that partnership we will be featuring research and guests from their network, and regular live events at their base in Whitehall. To attend the first event on March 11th, pay for a Subscription to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn  Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  Show Notes Links Read: Did Wagner Group prove an effective tool for Russian foreign policy? By RUSI https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/external-publications/did-wagner-group-prove-effective-tool-russian-foreign-policy  Read Has Sudan’s Conflict Reached a Turning Point? By RUSI https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/has-sudans-conflict-reached-turning-point  More on Professor Clionadh: https://acleddata.com/team/prof-clionadh-raleigh/   Read ACLED’s Raleigh Report from December 2024: https://acleddata.com/2024/12/19/the-raleigh-report-december-2024/  Read Semafor’s Predictions for Africa in 2025: https://www.semafor.com/article/01/02/2025/africa-in-2025   RUSI experts in this region are, Dr Joana de Deus Pereira https://www.rusi.org/people/de-deus-pereira, Christopher Hockey https://rusi.org/people/hockey , Michael Jones https://rusi.org/people/jones  Read RUSI’s paper, Conclusions Paper: Thematic Research Meeting on the Impacts of Disinformation Campaigns in the Sahel (Southern Neighbourhood) and Effects on Radicalisation and Extremist Movements in the EU: https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/external-publications/conclusions-paper-thematic-research-meeting-impacts-disinformation-campaigns-sahel-southern   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

With Trump due to be inaugurated in less than 15 days, it is high time to come to grips with his foreign policy vision as it can be gleaned from his cabinet appointments. The incoming cabinet appears isolationist, transactional, and lacking a coherent view of what an American-led global system should look like.   This begs the questions: Could Trump 2.0 symbolise a shift in the Republican foreign policy establishment away from the neoconservatism which has dominated it for four decades and towards a novel and novel approach to American foreign policy? Is this new approach filled with internal contradictions? And what do these countervailing wings of Trumpism mean for Trump 2.0 Administration’s approach to American adversaries such as Russia, China and Iran?  To investigate, Jason is joined by Dr Alan Mendoza, founder and Executive Director of The Henry Jackson Society -- a Westminster think tank known for proposing bold and neo-conservative solutions to the crises facing Britain and the world.  The duo begin by reflecting on the historical significance of figures like Senator Henry “Scoop” Jackson(D-WA) and the historical inversions represented by Trump's isolationist and transactional approach to global order. Then: Alan and Jason embark on an around the world tour investigating the current structural weaknesses of Russia under Putin, the fragility of dictatorships in general, the growing threat posed by China, strategies for confronting it, and the importance of deterrence in global politics.  After the ad break Alan and Jason look at: Britain's historical and current role in the Middle East, asking, could Britain compensate for Trumpian aloofness by seeking to reassert a leadership in the MENA region? They explore the influence of Iran as a destabilizing force, the situation in Gaza, the challenges posed by Hamas, and the need for an activist and bold British foreign policy to draw on Britain’s unique strengths and secure her interests.  As the Order the Disorder, Alan proposes that Britain should invest more in cultivating hard power, while Jason stresses the need for upping Britain’s capacity in the sanctions space. Finally, if he were King for a day, Alan would established a new international institution just for functioning democracies – that could work adjacent to the UN – and act as a coordinating forum for the world’s ordering powers.  Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn  Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ In this week’s substack we will have extra audio content about Hamas disinformation about Gazan civilian casualties during the Israel-Hamas war  Show Notes Links  Watch/read interview with Alan about Putin: https://www.the-sun.com/news/13187114/putin-rule-power-russia-mafia/amp/   Read Restoring Deterrence: Destabilising the Iranian Regime by the Henry Jackson Society https://henryjacksonsociety.org/publications/restoring-deterrence-destabilising-the-iranian-regime/   Read Timothy Snyder on Trump, Russia and Ukraine https://www.theguardian.com/books/2025/jan/01/timothy-snyder-trump-musk-russia-ukraine-putin   Listen to our episode on Canada’s role in the world: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/601e6a1721995fa854010c309c11ab24   Listen to our episode on China’s economy: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/eaa3d94ed88eb3142a9f4ed571fe4a1f   Listen to our episode with Marcel Dirsus: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/bcd89a117331e217c82af1d018e28d9e    Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

From the Trump election win to the ongoing conflicts across the Middle East, Sudan and Ukraine… 2024 was certainly a year full of Disorder. But what about 2025? Is there any realistic hope that it could be more orderly? Well maybe there is! And maybe the time has come to take more seriously the *potential* advantages of certain Trump policy proposals. (or maybe not? hahahah)  In this episode, we continue our spotlight on Hebrew music as it is still Hannukah and the tune we start out with asks the question ‘What will happen in the new year? We have to wait and see’. Jason is joined by fan favourite Jane Kinninmont to discuss the past year: reflecting on the myriad challenges faced by Orderers. They dissect the most Disordering events of 2024 as well as providing some hypotheticals like the various dogs that didn’t bark: the assassination attempt against Trump leading to an American civil war or a hot war between Israel and Iran emerging due to a miscalculation.  Plus: what is the background of Susan Wiles, who is she, what stock does she come from, and what is her likely role in the incoming Trump government (could she be a power behind the throne and a real orderer)? We also discuss the centrality of the immigration issue to the global neo-populist movement.  Meanwhile, Jason wonders: has the center-left got it all wrong? Have we been too biased on the pod in 2024 in cheerleading for Starmer and American centrists? This chain of thought culminates in some musings on Angela Merkel’s leadership, and her missteps, and the influence of conspiracy theories in popular culture. The show ends predictability by our discussing how each of us can help to order the disorder in 2025, emphasizing the importance of civic engagement and individual empowerment to help drive positive policies.  Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn  Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/   Show Notes Links  For more about our Glaswegian Fan Favourite Jane Kinninmont: https://europeanleadershipnetwork.org/person/jane-kinninmont/   And her recent fascinating article in The Times of India ‘Ayatollah after Assad’: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/toi-edit-page/ayatollah-after-assad/   Alex has written this great overview article about the situation in Georgia from her recent trip:  https://bylinetimes.com/2024/12/17/the-west-will-regret-abandoning-the-georgian-people-to-the-clutches-of-russia/  If you like the way the Disorder Pod sounds check out ‘Can a steel town survive if its furnaces are turned off? – podcast’  where the reporting and the audio production are done by our producer George McDonagh: https://www.theguardian.com/news/audio/2024/dec/19/can-a-steel-town-survive-if-its-furnaces-are-turned-off-podcast    For more of Yoav Oved’s music visit his Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/YoavSings/?locale=en_GB   Or instagram https://www.instagram.com/yoavsings/?__d=1     Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

As 2024 draws to a close, Jason and Alex celebrate Chrismukkah (when Christmas and Hanukkah fall on the same date, which is actually a rarer occurrence than you might imagine). They feature some cantorial Hebrew music in the intro and some choral Christmas jingles in the outro. They share their families’ Christmas traditions, exploring the differences between American and British celebrations. They also explore the make believe of the contrasting Christmas celebrations of their alter egos, Xela Llah Llah and Nosaj Kcap.  Plus:  Alex’s recent trip to Georgia, highlighting the protests against the Georgian Dream government’s cancellation of EU membership, and how the West should respond. Also: the plight of the Kurds in Northeastern Syria, the need for a jamboree international conference of aid and capacity building support for Syria, the importance of proactive Western leadership on issues like Georgia and Syria and the potential profound consequences of inaction.   And as they Order the Disorder, they express hope for positive change amidst global disorder. For Xmas Jason wishes for ‘Two NATOs on climate change, one NATO on tax havens, and a partridge in a pear tree,’ while Alex wishes for ‘the EU to come up with a way to bypass Hungary and Slovakia and put sanctions on Georgia before the end of the year.’  Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn  Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  Show Notes Links Read more about the plight of the Kurds of Northeastern Syria- https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/16/world/middleeast/kurdish-forces-syria-turkey-isis-america.html  Alex has written this great overview article about the situation in Georgia from her recent trip:  https://bylinetimes.com/2024/12/17/the-west-will-regret-abandoning-the-georgian-people-to-the-clutches-of-russia/  And Arthur Snell has interviewed one of the leading experts on HTS and the Syrian anti-Assad jihadi landscapes: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/inside-hts-what-does-al-jolani-want-and-how-will-they-rule/id1704344656?i=1000680598620  If you like the way the Disorder Pod sounds check out ‘Can a steel town survive if its furnaces are turned off? – podcast’  where the reporting and the audio production are done by our producer George McDonagh: https://www.theguardian.com/news/audio/2024/dec/19/can-a-steel-town-survive-if-its-furnaces-are-turned-off-podcast   For more on Evoke visit https://www.evokemusic.org/   For more of Yoav Oved visit his Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/YoavSings/?locale=en_GB   Or Instagram https://www.instagram.com/yoavsings/?__d=1   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

From its important but underrecognized role in the World Wars of the 20th century to its key advocacy for the UN system, humanitarian aid, peacekeeping, and international treaties, Canada has been a major player in the global ordering sweepstakes.   So what does Canada do when the world’s largest trading relationship (Canada’s with the United States) no longer necessarily connects it to a trustworthy nation? Can Canada step up and present itself as an independent leader of the free world and a ‘coordinator-in-chief’ for other Ordering nations? Will hosting the G7 give Canada some stealth mega ordering mojo?  To discuss that and more, Jason is joined by Marci Surkes, Surkes served as Executive Director of Policy and Cabinet Affairs in the office of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. This turned out to be a very timely conversation as Canadian PM Justin Trudeau visited President-Elect Trump in Mar-a-Lago in late November and noted that Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs would decimate the Canadian economy. In response Trump suggested that Canada was ‘ripping off America’ to the tune of a 100 billion USD a year and that if Canada wanted tariff free trade it could become the 51st state. This sparked many viral memes.  Amidst this bizarre and yet terrifying backdrop, Jason and Marci explore the upcoming 2025 Canadian election, which may actually play out as a referendum on Trudeau’s handling of the Trump presidency. They also discuss leadership challenges to Trudeau within the Liberal Party and the fraught relationship between Canada and India and the pivotal role Canada could play in Global Ordering as it takes on the presidency of the G7 in 2025.   Plus: could there be a budding bromance between Starmer and Trudeau? And as Marci and Jason Order the Disorder, they explore the need for more gender equality across politics and why medium powers like Canada can play a pivotal role on issues like security guarantees and NATO.  Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn  Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  Show Notes Links  Listen to an explainer on why Canadian politics has ground to a halt: https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/stalemate-why-the-house-of-commons-has-ground-to-a-halt/id1621425319?i=1000677888744 Listen to Marci’s appearance on a panel discussing what Trump means for Canada: https://paulwells.substack.com/p/the-panel-what-trump-means-for-canada?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=804175&post_id=151283084&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1ruvru&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email Listen to our Ben Ansell episode about other elections: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/50e9a35e0737bb9d0ddf29460a199c37  Read profile of Melanie Joly: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/04/world/canada/melanie-joly-foreign-affairs-profile.html   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this insightful discussion, Jane Kinninmont, a Middle Eastern politics expert fresh from a Doha conference, shares her thoughts on post-Assad Syria. She highlights the mix of jubilation and chaos following Assad’s fall. Jane tackles the complexities of international responses, including regional players maintaining control and European nations contemplating refugee deportations. Personal anecdotes add depth, revealing life in a surveilled Syria. The conversation emphasizes the need for collaborative strategies for Syria’s future amidst shifting power dynamics.

This week was par for the course… We are living through Peak Disorder. Two democratic capital cities were convulsed by demonstrations trying to oust their governments. One Middle Eastern regime collapsed, while a neighboring war was paused.   We at the Disorder pod believe that events like the Israeli-Lebanese ceasefire, the fall of Syria to the rebels, the street protests in Georgia in response to claims the election was rigged, the protests in South Korea opposing attempts to impose martial law, the battleground issues of the Irish elections, the spontaneous collapse of the French government, and the pardoning of Hunter Biden are all interrelated. We are most certainly living through the Global Enduring Disorder. In this historic era, events in one part of the world ping pong around and interact in unforeseen ways with events elsewhere, without sufficiently coordinated responses from potential Ordering powers.  On today’s episode, we’re joined today by friend of the pod, fellow Georgia enthusiast, and former British Diplomat Arthur Snell. Arthur has recently hosted excellent pods on events in Syria and Georgia on his Behind the Lines podcast. (Links below) We recorded most of the episode after the Fall of Aleppo but before the fall of the Assad regime in total. Therefore, we will be having a bonus episode with Jane Kinninmont on Thursday delving into that in specific.  In this ep, Arthur and Jason survey all of these topics, explaining that because of the fundamental principles of our era of Global Enduring Disorder, previously stable looking places like South Korea, are becoming Disorderly. They discuss how memes and themes that are playing out in the UK and US are also rehashed in Ireland. They finish the show by trying to Order the Disorder – contrasting developments in South Korea with those in Georgia, concluding that state capacity and cultural solidarity is more vital now than ever.  Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  Show Notes Links  Listen to Arthur’s podcast episode about Georgia: https://pod.link/1704344656/episode/a654b790f75542d26710235d05c378d7   And his episode on The Fall of Aleppo: https://pod.link/1704344656/episode/08772c26e60e40496a2a235b491f561b   For deeper background to the Syrian Rebel’s offensive: https://www.syriaintransition.com/aleppoherewecome   And how events in South Korea are connected to developments in Trump world: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/12/south-korea-martial-law/680864/   And the Irish elections:  https://www.breakingnews.ie/general-election-2024/hutchs-dail-bid-ends-with-him-running-away-from-pandemonium-at-count-centre-1702711.html    Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Ben Ansell, a Professor of Comparative Democratic Institutions at the University of Oxford, explores the state of democracy in the wake of the historic 2024 elections. He argues that despite discontent with outcomes, we should trust the democratic process. The conversation covers global electoral trends, anti-incumbency sentiments, and the rise of neopopulism. Ansell highlights how social media and disinformation challenge elections today, while asserting that democracy is vibrant and evolving, rather than declining.

In this Thanksgiving special, the hosts tackle the geopolitical tensions between China and Taiwan, pondering the consequences of potential conflict. They explore the rise of J.D. Vance in U.S. politics and the challenges surrounding transgender issues in society. Celebrity influence, especially with Taylor Swift, sparks a debate on political engagement and polarization. Amidst dark days, they remain hopeful about collective efforts to protect democracy and stress the importance of understanding across political divides.

Dive into the chaos of Trump's controversial appointments and their impact on American institutions. Explore the evolving legal challenges Trump faces while pondering whether Biden's approach has been too timid. Meet Xela Llah Llah, a quirky alter-ego providing insights from beyond the political looking glass. Shift focus to Starmer's role in global leadership and his COP appearance, questioning the future of multilateralism. The discussion blends humor with serious political critique, showcasing complex character dynamics and the state of UK politics.