Disorder

In Alex’s penultimate episode as an official Disorder cohost, she and Jason discuss her decision to step back from co-hosting due to the overwhelming chaos in the world and the emotional toll it takes. Plus: they unpack the struggle to maintain empathy in a disordered world, the rising fear of deportation, cancellation, political violence, censorship, enemies lists, and their implications for democracy. And – as they Order the Disorder – they look at the importance of maintaining professional integrity, while dealing with emotional challenges. They also explore strategies for coping with the chaos of modern life. Producer: George McDonagh Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow  Show Notes Links: Read about Georgia’s struggle for democracy and slide into authoritarianism and how it mirrors our own in the USA: https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/06/08/i-was-not-fierce-enough-georgian-activists-brutal-confession-as-democracy-collapses/ Watch Why Regime Change in Iran is Impossible - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UlX5_mp1JWc Read ‘Donald Trump’s Los Angeles Military Deployment Is an Assault on American Democracy’ - https://bylinetimes.com/2025/06/10/donald-trump-los-angeles-military-deployment-assault-on-american-democracy/  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As Lenin apparently never said, ‘There Are Decades Where Nothing Happens and Weeks Where Decades Happen’. We are clearly living through the latter. Arthur and Jason attempt to untangle the latest: from the Iranian attack on the US airbase in Qatar to Trump’s declaration of forever peace to end what he is cleverly calling the 12 Day War. Arthur and Jason rally in violent unity for Mega Ordering -- whether you advocated for Obama’s ‘Iran Deal’ or supported Trump’s tearing it to shreds, whether you love Benjamin Netanyahu or think he is an evil genius, whether you supported Trump’s Beautiful Bunker Busting against Fordow or see it as an illegal and reckless gamble, all sane centrists must now advocate for Western unity in ending the wars in Gaza and Iran. The power balance of the Middle East has been fundamentally reconfigured. It is uniquely favourable for peace. As Arthur and Jason try to Order the Disorder, they discuss if the Europeans can help get us there and why Bibi appears hellbent on spoiling his own achievements. Producer: George McDonagh Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow  Show Notes Links: Iran fires missiles at US base in Qatar, Trump calls for peace: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-weighs-retaliation-against-us-strikes-nuclear-sites-2025-06-23/ Watch How The Iran Israel War Could End - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fymBJbsBDfI  Arthur’s excellent substack Time to learn about Iran's separatist movements: https://substack.com/home/post/p-166505834    And our Substack, Were the Iranians forewarned? why are the markets so placid? What happens if Hormuz is closed? https://natoandtheged.substack.com/publish/posts/detail/166535764?referrer=%2Fpublish%2Fhome  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Trump promised to end the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, yet here we are – months later – and seemingly no real progress has been made towards peace in either regions. In the meantime, Trump and co were also seeking deals across the Middle East, including a new nuclear deal with Iran. How did that go? It ended in full scale War! Is the Art of the Deal dead? Is Trump a fool? Or is he more of a master negotiator than is immediately apparent? Did he actually manipulate the Iranians in a way that Biden never could have? To discuss this – and the intricate relationship between human psychology and the politics of negotiations – Jason was joined on June 10 by Ken Dekleva. A former senior US Dept of State physician-diplomat, CEO of Blackwood Advisory Solutions LLC, and Author of The Russian Diplomat’s Wife. Ken and Jason discuss the role of human psychology in Trump’s negotiations involving Ukraine, Russia, and Iran. Plus: they unpack the influence of Steve Witkoff within Trump’s inner circle, the complexities of negotiations in the Middle East – and whether Team Trump is likely to get any sort of deal with powers like Iran who wish to appear uncompromising. Listening to this discussion post Israeli Attack on Iran is actually super interesting as it shows the interplay btw negotiations and war in that region. And as they Order the Disorder, they touch on the future of U.S.-China relations in the context of AI and global power dynamics, and the need for a strategic approach to negotiations. Producer: George McDonagh Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow  Show Notes Links: Get Ken’s Book, The Russian Diplomat’s Wife - https://www.thecipherbrief.com/book-review/i-spy-a-love-story Listen to our previous episode with Ken - https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/94c9f3ec23902d3f606bffb43dc39928  Watch Does NATO Have A Future? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ouF6cVUJjY  Read profile of Steve Witkoff https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/05/steve-witkoff-putin-russia-ukraine-diplomat/682805/  Read Arthur Snells Substack on the Ukraine drone attack - https://arthursnell.substack.com/p/operation-spiders-web-opening-pandoras?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Missile strikes between Iran and Israel have escalated, resulting in tragic civilian casualties. The podcast dives into the roles of international players like Trump, the G7, and India in seeking solutions. Key discussions revolve around the challenges of potential regime change in Iran and the public's patience in Israel as conflict continues. The hosts engage in a lively debate over whether Israel's goals must be met before negotiating peace, highlighting the intricacies of military strategies and the impact of geopolitical dynamics.

Overnight, Israel attacked several of Iran’s nuclear sites and killed the Islamic Republic’s top military leaders, as well as assassinating the Supreme Leader’s key advisor on nuclear issues, Ali Shamkhani. This comes two days before the US and Iran were supposed to resume direct talks on finding a diplomatic agreement to curb Iran’s nuclear programme, which Shamkhani had publicly supported. Jane Kinninmont and Jason discuss why has war come now, in the middle of Trump and Witkoff’s diplomacy? Jason explains: it is likely because surprise and going on the offensive are more beneficial now than they have been in the last century. The duo break down the big picture implications of how the recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian nuclear planes and the ongoing Israeli strikes on Iran showcase how warfare has just rapidly changed from a period which favours static and prepared defense (the Cold War and Post-Cold War periods) to a period (The Enduring Disorder) in which warfare has changed to favours creative and imaginative offense. Our current military technology and intel (esp AI) will promote more instability and favour aggression over defense. Also the key thing to keep in mind is that the Israelis had prepared this attack for years and had actually delayed it and felt they needed to get it done before it was too late. Jason also predicts Iranians will have to asymmetrically retaliate... could be against US or Sunni Gulfi targets in the region (refineries/embassies) or Jewish/Israeli targets in Europe/the Globe. In short, we are entering a new phase of the Wars of Disorder. Producer: George McDonagh Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow  Show Notes Links: For the NYT’s coverage of kinetic developments and Overviews: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/12/world/israel-iran-us-nuclear  For an excellent audio overview of what sites were attacked and why now-- Emergency Episode: ISRAEL AT WAR WITH IRAN - With Ronen Bergman: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/call-me-back-with-dan-senor/id1539292794?i=1000712721731 This attack has been long prepared: CIA analyst who leaked Israeli military plans gets three years in prison - The Washington Post https://apple.news/ABFn0haZjROuV8HqU_Ezsug Why can’t we just have global order, and civility on the Tube: https://www.ft.com/content/cfb73bfe-fb42-4fd1-8b73-a125fd35e1a0?accessToken=zwAGN3LKTcoYkdPPtzv--0JP0dOLc6El_TXhoA.MEQCIG07rU5VCnoJ70yjPQ85Yr2K3YVq65g_R1jNE0NXa1dyAiBuosNEkyWwxJu499tazJwRojNLWZgq9iJmfvfLfBN5tQ&sharetype=gift&token=8dc84b36-5e95-4856-9c28-e6d884595132 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

At different engagements throughout the month, NATO allies will meet in Brussels and the Hague to discuss Ukraine and defense spending – with Trump’s team putting pressure on the Europeans to up their spending to 5% of GDP. But with the Americans wavering on the alliance as a whole, and these unrealistic spending targets: Can NATO survive? To find out, Arthur Snell speaks with Sten Rynning, professor and director of the Danish Institute for Advanced Study, University of Southern Denmark, and author of ‘NATO: From Cold War to Ukraine, a History of the World’s Most Powerful Alliance’.  The duo discuss the origins and evolution of NATO, the significance of Article 5, NATO’s complex relationship with France, and the challenges faced during the Afghanistan mission. Plus: the contentious issue of NATO's eastward expansion in the wake of the fall of the Soviet Union, and the Alliance's role in maintaining Order in the Post-War era. And as they conclude the discussion, they explore the future of European security architecture, the importance of America's role in NATO, and – to Order the Disorder – the need for a cohesive European defense strategy. Producer: George McDonagh Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow  Show Notes Links: Get Sten Rynning’s book, NATO: From Cold War to Ukraine, a History of the World’s Most Powerful Alliance - https://www.londonreviewbookshop.co.uk/stock/nato-from-cold-war-to-ukraine-a-history-of-the-world-s-most-powerful-alliance-sten-rynning  Watch The Paradox of the Anti-Semitic Boulder attack - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7zAO_5CtfE  Listen to Arthur’s Behind The Lines Podcast - https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/behind-the-lines-with-arthur-snell/id1704344656  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this discussion, David Troy, an investigative journalist and editor of America 2.0, sheds light on the ideology fueling Putin's ambitions. He emphasizes the overlooked significance of 'Project Russia' as a manifesto reflecting deep-rooted Russian motives. The conversation traverses the evolution of Soviet tactics into today's geopolitical strategies, the complexities of Russian cosmism, and the urgent need for Western leaders to grasp these realities. Troy advocates for a paradigm shift in foreign policy to better navigate the challenges posed by authoritarian regimes.

With Friedrich Merz officially at the helm, Germany is entering a new era. But with the AfD breathing down his neck – the country is actually more internally Disordered than outsiders may realise. We ask: could the answer be a new – inclusive – brand of nationalism?To find out, Jane Kinninmont is joined by Will Wilkes: Bloomberg News correspondent in Germany and co-author of ‘Broken Republik: The Inside Story of Germany's Descent into Crisis’. The pair discuss the current state of Germany, discussing how Germany's historical context – not just WWII but also the impact of the financial crisis and the refugee influx – has shaped its present situation. Plus: Germany's role in European security and the challenges posed by the rise of the far-right party, AFD.And as Jane and Will Order the Disorder – they discuss how to create a cohesive German national identity – could it be fostering unity by creating new community celebrations? Producer: George McDonagh Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow  Check out our recent YouTube ‘The DC Jewish Museum shooting: The Disorderly illogic of it’ - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2BaWtQ5bH-Q&t=2s  Show Notes Links: Broken Republik (English edition): https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/broken-republik-9781526679161/  Totally Kaputt (German edition): https://www.piper.de/buecher/totally-kaputt-isbn-978-3-492-07328-8  Friedrich Merz is no unifier – he may deepen Germany’s divides (The Guardian): https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/may/05/germany-unifier-chancellor-divide-friedrich-merz  Germany’s identity crisis is 80 years in the making (Bloomberg):  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-10/germany-s-political-center-challenged-by-afd-russia-china-and-trump?sref=ttOZ5TVM Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Robert Kaplan, a New York Times bestselling author known for his influential views on global crises, joins the conversation. He examines the rise of populism and the decline of institutions, drawing eerie parallels between historical events and today's political landscape. Kaplan highlights the significance of constitutional monarchies for stability and critiques military readiness in Europe. He shares insights on how societal disorder can lead to extreme tyranny, urging a return to expert guidance for navigating current global challenges.

To best Order the Disorder, we love hosting live shows with our partners at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) and showcasing the great range of talent that they have on staff. Jane and Jason were joined for a live recording on May 14 by TOM KEATINGE, DIRECTOR OF THE CENTRE FOR FINANCE AND SECURITY AT RUSI. The trio started off tackling Sanctions: the role and use of Western Sanctions before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022; how the use of sanctions has changed since Russia’s full-scale invasion, particularly on this side of the Atlantic; what does this mean for the rest of the world; and how this expansive use of sanctions is reordering global finance.  And then moved on to the question of Markets…. and how they hold governments to account. Jason genuinely believes that the markets may be our last hope to save American democracy and that they can do what the supreme court and congress are supposed to do but cannot.  Finally, we couldn’t discuss finance and security without mentioning the Donald’s favourite word in the English language that word that he seems not to realize comes directly from Arabic, *Tariffs*.  We tried to unpack what really are tarriffs; how we know they didn’t work with Smoot Hawley; what does Donald Trump think tarriffs are. The main take away of the discussion overall was: The failure of economic tools of coercion such as sanctions and tariffs to achieve their stated aims and the power of 'markets' to reassert order.  It was a well attended live show with over 75 guests in RUSI’s beautiful library… pls come join us for the next one in the Autumn. And more importantly right now! Pls pls join our paid for substack to hear all the beautiful listener questions! Producer: George McDonagh Subscribe to our Substack and become a paid member to support our work and to listen to the listener questions which are cut from this free episode - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Show Notes Links:  We are trying to grow our YouTube channel. Pls check out this rather racy video and subscribe to the channel, Is Gary Lineker an Anti-Semite? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gdi4vVGyCkM  Relevant RUSI sanctions work can be found here: https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/projects/sanctions-and-illicit-finance-monitoring-and-analysis-network-sifmanet  A recent article challenging the Russia maritime sanctions status quo can be found here: https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/tapped-out-it-time-revisit-oil-sanctions-russia  A recent article arguing for action on the Russian central bank assets can be found here: https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-central-bank-assets-ukraine/  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices