Disorder

Will the US and Iran always be at odds? What is the history of their feud? Weren’t the countries allies under the Shah? And today, what’s the chance that negotiations will resume after the 12 Day War earlier this year? And why has the Iran file always been one of the most toxic and divisive issues in Washington foreign policy circles? To find out the answers to these questions and more, Jane - who has analysed and tracked the Iran file for two decades - quizzes an expert, author and friend, Dalia Dassa Kaye, whose new book ‘Enduring Hostility’ explores the history of U.S. policy towards Iran based on interviews with the most important DC insiders from rcent U.S. administrations. Not many people realise it, but virtually every U.S. administration since Carter has tried diplomacy with Iran. They’ve also always tried various forms of pressure - especially sanctions - and at times threats of military attack. Why, then, do the U.S. and Iran keep circling around the negotiating table despite seeing each other as archenemies? What happened to the JCPOA and will there be another nuclear deal? Or are we more likely to see another round of war between Iran and Israel? Jane and Dalia explain it all here just before they both head to Qatar for a bunch of serious discussions about mediation efforts. To join our Mega Orderers Club, and get ad free listening, early episode releases, bonus content and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/  Producer: George McDonagh Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow Show Notes Links: Pls Join the Mega Orderers Club for ad-free listening and early release of the episodes, via this link: https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/ For more on our partnership with the New Books Network visit: https://newbooksnetwork.com/category/up-partners/disorder  Dalia Dassa Kaye - Enduring Hostility - https://www.sup.org/books/politics/enduring-hostility  Dalia’s op-ed in the Economist - https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2025/11/28/dont-count-on-a-reset-in-us-iran-relations-writes-dalia-dassa-kaye  And now to close out, an oldie but a goodie - Jane’s analysis for Chatham House when the JCPOA was signed, looking at the deal’s vulnerabilities and arguing a parallel diplomatic track was needed to address the regional tensions between Iran and its neighbours - https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/field/field_document/20150703IranGCCKinninmont.pdf  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

With the long-awaited UK budget finally revealed (in a leaked form a few hours early), will this finally restore a semblance of financial Order to the UK? And with Trump’s haphazard tariffs ongoing and constantly mutating, what does it all mean for the global economic order? To find out, Jason is joined by Philip Coggan, award winning journalist and author of The Economic Consequences of Mr Trump: What the Trade War Means For the World. This ep is brought to you in partnership with the New Books Network. Philip and Jason explore how major historical lessons in economics (concerning specialization, efficiency, growth, the advantages of trade deficits, etc.) can all be unpacked from the ongoing economic consequences of Trump's tariffs.  They draw upon the historical parallels of Trump's actions to try to understand the true motivations behind Trump’s tarriffs.  Is it all about misunderstanding the meaning of trade deficits, or all about manufacturing, or is it all about centralisation of power and political theatre. Listen to find out… Plus: the duo spoke right after the UK budget announcement and they tried to unpack the domestic implications of the recent UK budget and whether any of Reeve’s economic policies can actually Order the Disorder. To join our Mega Orderers Club, and get ad free listening, early episode releases, bonus content and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/  Producer: George McDonagh Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow Show Notes Links: Pls Join the Mega Orderers Club for ad-free listening and early release of the episodes, via this link: https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/ For more on our partnership with the New Books Network visit: https://newbooksnetwork.com/category/up-partners/disorder  Get Philip’s book The Economic Consequences of Mr Trump - https://profilebooks.com/work/the-economic-consequences-of-mr-trump/  Cockup instead of Conspiracy: How Rachel Reeves’s budget was leaked 40 minutes early: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/nov/26/how-rachel-reeves-budget-was-leaked-40-minutes-early  Budget 2025: Key points at a glance-- https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj4w44w42j5o  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What aboot Canada? Is Carney still popular? Has he pulled a Starmer of coming in with big fanfare and then flopping? Fortunately not! And with Mark Carney recently narrowly passing a budget, can Canada now play the role of the world’s mega orderers? And with the Canada-U.S. relationship on the rocks and trade talks stalled, what does that mean for Canada’s position in the world? To find out, Jason is joined by our returning champion, Marci Surkes. She is Chief Strategy Officer and Managing Director of Compass Rose and was formerly executive director of policy and cabinet affairs in Justin Trudeau’s  Prime Minister’s Office from 2019-2022. Jason and Marci discuss Prime Minister Mark Carney’s leadership style, the recent surge in Canadian defense spending, and the ongoing trade war with the United States. Plus: the challenges Canada faces in diversifying its economy, and the implications of its historical reliance on the U.S.. And as they Order the Disorder, they focus on Canada's future role in global politics and the importance of unity within the country. To join our Mega Orderers Club, and get ad free listening, early episode releases, bonus content and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/  Producer: George McDonagh Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow Show Notes Links: Pls Join the Mega Orderers Club for ad-free listening and early release of the episodes, via this link: https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/ For more on Marci and her work visit https://www.compassrosegroup.org/en/marci-surkes  Listen to our previous episode with Marci: https://open.spotify.com/episode/50T7tW7IXc0wmgHBgH8HUK  For more on Canada listen to Front Burner https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/front-burner/id1439621628  Watch The Ontario anti-tariff ad which led Trump to end trade talks with Canada https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XWQRuRIxMBI  Read about Trump’s new tariffs on Canada https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2ljgrm78zo  Read Canada narrowly approves Carney's first federal budget https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp8531xvy26o Watch The Panel: What Trump means for Canada https://substack.com/@paulwells/p-151283084  Read 'Expect to see lots of borrowing of technique, borrowing of language,’ from U.S. progressives from Marci https://www.compassrosegroup.org/en/updates/2024/8/26/expect-to-see-lots-of-borrowing-of-technique-borrowing-of-language-from-us-progressives  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this bonus episode, Jane and Jason are joined by former Israeli Ambassador to South Africa, Ilan Baruch, to present a unique perspective on a possible route to peace between Israel and Palestine. Amb. Baruch is a part of the ‘Policy Working Group’, which advocates for ‘leveling the playing field’ between Israelis and Palestinians.  We discuss the need for ‘equality’ among parties in negotiations, the role of the UK and international community in peace efforts, and what recognition of Palestinian statehood actually means for peace. Plus: changes in Israeli and Diasporic Jewish public opinion regarding a two-state solution, and as they Order the Disorder, Amb. Baruch puts forward a vision for a peaceful future in the Middle East and the role of international powers in achieving it. Jason pushes back on this vision of an Israel-Palestinian condominium as overly optimistic, but hopefully it makes for a great listen. To join our Mega Orderers Club, and get ad free listening, early episode releases, bonus content and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/  Producer: George McDonagh Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow Show Notes Links: Pls Join the Mega Orderers Club for ad-free listening and early release of the episodes, via this link: https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/ NGO MONITOR—SHRINKING SPACE:   http://policyworkinggroup.org.il/  Listen to World Report https://open.spotify.com/show/5qaYz2SRxlPUszXZQWNl1U?utm_source=chatgpt.com  For more on Ilan Baruch’s work: https://www.pascalboniface.com/2024/09/11/interview-two-israeli-diplomats-denounce-netanyahus-gaza-policy/  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The US president has said he plans to sue the BBC, even after getting an apology for a misleading Panorama edit of his 6 January speech. But how could he do that national broadcaster of America’s greatest ally? And will the BBC cave? To find out, Jason is joined again by returning cohost, Mark Lobel. They discuss the BBC’s next moves and whether Trump’s lawsuit actually has any merit. Plus: they dissect a tumultuous week for Keir Starmer, Rachel Reeve’s budgetary reversals, Wes Streeting’s ‘leadership challenge’ and what this all means for actuality of centrist leadership. And as they look to Order the Disorder, they discuss the issue of wealth inequality as today’s greatest global challenge, and why radical transparency and generosity might be what’s needed to fix it. To join our Mega Orderers Club, and get ad free listening, early episode releases, bonus content and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/  Producer: George McDonagh Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow Show Notes Links: Pls Join the Mega Orderers Club for ad-free listening and early release of the episodes, via this link: https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/ For more on Mark Lobel visit https://www.mark-lobel.com/  Read Yuval Noah Harari: Only generosity can secure peace between Israelis and Palestinians https://www.ft.com/content/04078017-18b1-4c63-8521-198c69684255  Read Zach Polanski The right can mock my teeth all it wants – it shows the Greens have struck a nerve https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/nov/10/green-party-zack-polanski-struck-nerve-politics  Read Upper East Side Moms Are Melting Down Over Mamdani - New York Magazine https://www.thecut.com/article/moms-of-the-upper-east-side-facebook-meltdown-mamdani.html  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

For a special crossover episode with the Democracy Works podcast, Jenna Spinelle talks with Jason. They discuss the state of democracy around the world and why making America's government more like a European country might not be the solution to our current polarization that some democracy reformers hope it will be. We also contrast the current state of play in the US and UK and speculate as to why Keir Starmer has been such a disappointment and how the UK is not able to provide a model of centre-left governance to the US in the way that Jason might have hoped. To join our Mega Orderers Club, and get ad free listening, early episode releases, bonus content and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/  Producer: George McDonagh Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow Show Notes Links: Join the Mega Orderers Club via this link: https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/ For more on Democracy works visit: https://democracyworks.simplecast.com/  To listen to Jason on yet another podcast, try his appearance on Practical Stoicism talking about the completely different topic of backgammon and the importance of being disciplined and self aware: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/practical-stoicism/id1603004118?i=1000734643776 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Central Park West Apartments for all! Freeze the Rent! Free Palestine! Jason goes on a screed that is sure to bemuse, offend, and enlighten. He showcases the myriad ways in which Mamdani’s leftwing populism is not so dissimilar to Trump’s disordering offerings. In the wake of Zohran Mamdani’s victory in the New York Mayoral Election, Democrats face a choice. How do they talk about the issues he won on – cost of living, housing, transport – but from a centrist perspective? Or do they even try and double down on the socialism? Because… if Mamdani’s populist hard left politics win out, could they be handing the next presidency to JD Vance? This week, Jason and Jane discuss the implications of the recent elections in the US, not just in New York City, but across the country. They debate the rise of Zohran Mamdani and how it raises questions profound questions about the soul of America, about nativism, identity politics, and the need for the Democratic Party to learn from centrist candidates to regain voter trust. And as they Order the Disorder, Jane and Jason discuss the growing need for experts in politics, and how populism – whether on the left or right of – isn’t the answer. To join our Mega Orderers Club, and get ad free listening, early episode releases, bonus content and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/  Producer: George McDonagh Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow Show Notes Links: Join the Mega Orderers Club via this link: https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/ The Fall of New York City in 8 Charts: This is why Mamdani won-- https://www.frontpagemag.com/the-fall-of-new-york-city-in-8-charts Listen back to Ep3. The Rise of the Neo-Populists https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/NGIxZDgwNGUtNGQ4Ni0xMWVlLWFlMTUtMWYxMWNiYzVkN2Jk  Timecodes Chapters 00:00 - 01:44: Intro  01:44 - 20:28: The Rise of Zohran Mamdani and the Dilemma for Democrats 20:28 - 37:56: What does this mean for wider US politics? 37:56 - end: Ordering the Disorder Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

To join our Mega Orderers Club, and get ad free listening, early episode releases, bonus content and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/  In institutional design, the US justice system is more independent than its European counterparts. Even though the US President selects his Attorney General, a corrupt President can be dealt with not only via impeachment, but in Principal through independent special counsels pursing justice while avoiding potential conflicts of interest. And yet… from Hillary’s emails to Trump’s possible collusion with Russia and promotion of an insurrection, the Special Prosecutor system hasn't worked as it should. And now despite all those checks and balances, we have a weaponized justice, with a more political DOJ under Pam Bondi being used to pursue revenge against Trump’s enemies.  How did we get to here? Why can’t the American system – designed with the most checks and balances -- work to hold power to account?   To find out, Jason is joined this week by Elie Honig, senior legal analyst for CNN and author of When You Come at the King: Inside DOJ's Pursuit of the President, from Nixon to Trump. This episode is brought to you in partnership with the New Books Network. They discuss the legal details of Watergate, Hillary Clinton’s emailgate, the Mueller investigation, and Jan 6. As they order the disorder, Elie and Jason consider whether and how the system can be reformed, and the importance of courage and integrity within the justice system. Producer: George McDonagh Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow Show Notes Links: Join the Mega Orderers Club via this link: ⁠https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/⁠ For more on our New Books Network partnership visit ⁠https://newbooksnetwork.com/category/up-partners/disorder⁠  Buy When You Come at the King: Inside DOJ's Pursuit of the President, from Nixon to Trump by Elie Honig ⁠https://www.amazon.co.uk/When-You-Come-King-President/dp/0063447363⁠  Read Why The Supreme Court Might Strike Down Trumps Tariffs ⁠https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/why-the-supreme-court-might-strike-down-trumps-tariffs.html⁠ Read The John Bolton Indictment Is Different ⁠https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/the-john-bolton-indictment-is-different/ar-AA1OESRh?apiversion=v2&domshim=1&noservercache=1&noservertelemetry=1&batchservertelemetry=1&renderwebcomponents=1&wcseo=1⁠ Watch Elie Honig on the Lincoln Project ⁠https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vSEytVs2Er4⁠  Read a review of Elie’s book at ⁠https://www.kirkusreviews.com/book-reviews/elie-honig/when-you-come-at-the-king/⁠  Another take on Elie’s book ⁠https://historynerdsunited.com/2025/09/when-you-come-at-the-king-by-elie-honig-book-review/⁠  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

To join our Mega Orderers Club, and get ad free listening, early episode releases, bonus content (like this week’s special bonus about the UN’s and Jason’s Birthday) and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/  In this listener questions episode, Jason and Jane discuss a range of issues from Israel-Gaza, to football hooliganism, to Kaliningrad (the Russian exclave), to the possibility of mega ordering institutions. They start by analysing the strategic importance of an alliance with Israel to the US by dissecting the Realist and Neo-conservative cases. Jane and Jason revisit the controversy of Maccabi Tel Aviv fans being banned from Birmingham by delving into the intersection of football and politics and the difference of fan culture in the US and UK. After the break, Jane and Jason tackle the questions: do sanctions on Russia go far enough? Could there be sanctions against the Kaliningrad exclave? Are we closer to nuclear war with Russia since the drone strikes? Why are we normalising Trump’s White House renovations? And as they Order the Disorder: we return as always to the need for a mega ordering club of democracies, how we decide on a common set of European values, and if the Ave Europe charity is on the right track. Producer: George McDonagh Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow Show Notes Links: Join the Mega Orderers Club via this link: https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/ Read the Ave Europa Charter: https://ave-europa.eu/charter/  Mearsheimer on ‘The Israel Lobby's Awesome Power’ https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/the-israel-lobbys-awesome-power And push back against his thoughts: https://www.israelfactcheck.com/debunking-mearsheimer-walt-s-theories-on-israel-influence  Some background on Kaliningrad: https://besacenter.org/kaliningrad-russias-exclave-in-europe/  Other perspectives on the rights of football fans and Maccabi hooliganism: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/oct/21/police-intelligence-on-extreme-maccabi-fans-with-history-of-violence-led-to-villa-park-ban Fighting for the rights of football fans How a Cambridge researcher fought for the rights of football fans and won: https://www.cam.ac.uk/stories/footballact2012  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

To join our Mega Orderers Club, and get ad free listening, early episode releases, bonus content and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/  As Trump parades across the Middle East collecting adulation for his ‘eternal peace’ deal, Jane and Jason break down the realities and explain that what was achieved was merely a hostage release, prisoner swap, and ceasefire. With Phase 2 looming and infighting already starting in Gaza, they look at the role of the various international actors (like Qatar, Egypt, UK, US) in possibly creating technocratic governance of Gaza. Plus: Is now the time for an Iran peace deal and as the UN Charter turns 80, what might the future of the organisation be? Finally, as they Order the Disorder, they discuss the need for progressive politicians to become better communicators. Producer: George McDonagh Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow Show Notes Links: Join the Mega Orderers Club via this link: https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/  For an explainer on Iran latest, read Gaza Ceasefire Could Give Iran Another Chance at Negotiations with the US - https://www.stimson.org/2025/gaza-ceasefire-could-give-iran-another-chance-at-negotiations-with-the-us/  Watch Jane discussing what’s next for Middle East - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=alTViSc3FJk  Read UN says countries are willing to help fund Gaza's $70 bln reconstruction https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/un-says-states-willing-fund-gazas-70-bln-rebuild-2025-10-14/  Read Why Was the President of FIFA at the Gaza Summit? https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/14/world/middleeast/gianni-infantino-fifa-trump.html  Read What Gaza has been like since the ceasefire in Vox - https://apple.news/Ao4Xzg8yKT5-aVo-nm8769A  Read BBC Expert Says The Israel-Palestine Conflict 'Will Continue' Despite Trump's Peace Plan - https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/bbc-expert-says-the-israel-palestine-conflict-will-continue-despite-trumps-peace-plan_uk_68eb5d49e4b0abf20b6b0850?ncid=APPLENEWS00001   Watch Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa interview with CBC https://share.google/Eik7y67VmISQHiegN  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices