In this insightful discussion, Jane Kinninmont, a Middle Eastern politics expert fresh from a Doha conference, shares her thoughts on post-Assad Syria. She highlights the mix of jubilation and chaos following Assad’s fall. Jane tackles the complexities of international responses, including regional players maintaining control and European nations contemplating refugee deportations. Personal anecdotes add depth, revealing life in a surveilled Syria. The conversation emphasizes the need for collaborative strategies for Syria’s future amidst shifting power dynamics.

This week was par for the course… We are living through Peak Disorder. Two democratic capital cities were convulsed by demonstrations trying to oust their governments. One Middle Eastern regime collapsed, while a neighboring war was paused.   We at the Disorder pod believe that events like the Israeli-Lebanese ceasefire, the fall of Syria to the rebels, the street protests in Georgia in response to claims the election was rigged, the protests in South Korea opposing attempts to impose martial law, the battleground issues of the Irish elections, the spontaneous collapse of the French government, and the pardoning of Hunter Biden are all interrelated. We are most certainly living through the Global Enduring Disorder. In this historic era, events in one part of the world ping pong around and interact in unforeseen ways with events elsewhere, without sufficiently coordinated responses from potential Ordering powers.  On today’s episode, we’re joined today by friend of the pod, fellow Georgia enthusiast, and former British Diplomat Arthur Snell. Arthur has recently hosted excellent pods on events in Syria and Georgia on his Behind the Lines podcast. (Links below) We recorded most of the episode after the Fall of Aleppo but before the fall of the Assad regime in total. Therefore, we will be having a bonus episode with Jane Kinninmont on Thursday delving into that in specific.  In this ep, Arthur and Jason survey all of these topics, explaining that because of the fundamental principles of our era of Global Enduring Disorder, previously stable looking places like South Korea, are becoming Disorderly. They discuss how memes and themes that are playing out in the UK and US are also rehashed in Ireland. They finish the show by trying to Order the Disorder – contrasting developments in South Korea with those in Georgia, concluding that state capacity and cultural solidarity is more vital now than ever.  Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  Show Notes Links  Listen to Arthur’s podcast episode about Georgia: https://pod.link/1704344656/episode/a654b790f75542d26710235d05c378d7   And his episode on The Fall of Aleppo: https://pod.link/1704344656/episode/08772c26e60e40496a2a235b491f561b   For deeper background to the Syrian Rebel’s offensive: https://www.syriaintransition.com/aleppoherewecome   And how events in South Korea are connected to developments in Trump world: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/12/south-korea-martial-law/680864/   And the Irish elections:  https://www.breakingnews.ie/general-election-2024/hutchs-dail-bid-ends-with-him-running-away-from-pandemonium-at-count-centre-1702711.html    Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Ben Ansell, a Professor of Comparative Democratic Institutions at the University of Oxford, explores the state of democracy in the wake of the historic 2024 elections. He argues that despite discontent with outcomes, we should trust the democratic process. The conversation covers global electoral trends, anti-incumbency sentiments, and the rise of neopopulism. Ansell highlights how social media and disinformation challenge elections today, while asserting that democracy is vibrant and evolving, rather than declining.

In this Thanksgiving special, the hosts tackle the geopolitical tensions between China and Taiwan, pondering the consequences of potential conflict. They explore the rise of J.D. Vance in U.S. politics and the challenges surrounding transgender issues in society. Celebrity influence, especially with Taylor Swift, sparks a debate on political engagement and polarization. Amidst dark days, they remain hopeful about collective efforts to protect democracy and stress the importance of understanding across political divides.

Dive into the chaos of Trump's controversial appointments and their impact on American institutions. Explore the evolving legal challenges Trump faces while pondering whether Biden's approach has been too timid. Meet Xela Llah Llah, a quirky alter-ego providing insights from beyond the political looking glass. Shift focus to Starmer's role in global leadership and his COP appearance, questioning the future of multilateralism. The discussion blends humor with serious political critique, showcasing complex character dynamics and the state of UK politics.

Join Matt Kelly, Founder of The New European and co-host of The Two Matts podcast, alongside fellow host Matt d’Ancona, Editor-in-chief of The New European. The duo dives into the troubling rise of neopopulism, drawing parallels between the UK and US political landscapes. They dissect the failures of the center-left and highlight the urgent need for bold leadership to combat swelling anti-immigrant sentiments. With sharp commentary on current political figures and strategies, they explore how complacency is eroding progressive values on both sides of the Atlantic.

The Disorderer-in-Chief is now President-Elect. We can’t say we didn’t see it coming. In fact, we predicted on the pod and on the substack that he was favourite to win. But as the post-mortems are bouncing around the internet, we must ask what one factor most led to this outcome: was it the economy, was it woke gone overboard, was it misinformation, was it the anti-incumbency mood? Which factors predominated in making Harris unelectable? And how did the Democratic party allow itself to be fooled again and fight the election on losing issues? And Were Americans fooled by false promises? And duped by misinformation about the issues?   And given Trump’s resounding victory what is next – will he deport millions of Americans, launch a trade war that drives inflation skywards, and give Musk the keys to the regulatory castle to endlessly enrich himself – and will the American electorate care in 4 years’ time?  In this episode, Alex and Jason discuss the major reasons underpinning Trump’s win. Including: the cultural shifts in the United States, the fact that Trump’s criminality and venality may actually be seen by many of his voters as a positive (i.e. they voted for him not despite the fact that he is a convicted felon but BECAUSE OF IT), and how the Republicans were brutally effective in their advertising and narrative crafting.  Amidst all the tumult, the Disorder pods co-hosts attempt to take stock globally and personally. Alex – a Brit turned American – and Jason – an American turned Brit – reflect on their own changing identities and how the result makes them feel in their guts. Plus: listener questions tackle topics like the future of Europe and NATO, could Trump change the constitution, could Trump actually deliver what people want, what about Bitcoin, and whether America could become yet another Russia-style oligarchy.  Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  Show Notes Links Read Alex’s Byline Times Article - ‘Democrats Need to Stop Blaming Trump’s Voters and Admit the Party Must Change’: https://bylinetimes.com/2024/11/07/democrats-need-to-stop-blaming-trumps-voters-and-admit-the-party-must-change/   What the Founding Fathers Would Say About Trump’s Win “I told you so.”: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/11/08/what-the-founding-fathers-would-say-about-trumps-win/?tpcc=editors_picks&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Editors%20Picks%2011092024&utm_term=editors_picks   Trump’s Historic Chief of Staff Pick, and What Elon Musk Wants Now: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/08/podcasts/trump-chief-of-staff-musk.html   Amsterdam bans protests after 'antisemitic squads' attack Israeli soccer fans:  https://www.reuters.com/world/israels-pm-aware-very-violent-incident-against-israelis-amsterdam-his-office-2024-11-08/   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

After a night of trepidation at Jason’s watch party the results came in faster and more furiously than expected… Trump crushed Harris – not just in rural areas or in Red States, but in many middle-class suburbs/exurbs and even with Latino and Black men. This 2024 Trumpian landslide is the biggest re-alignment in American politics since Reagan crushed Carter in 1980. The ‘lumpenproletariat’ Trump coalition of 2024 is actually highly dissimilarly economically, socially, ideologically and ethnically to the ‘whitelash’ coalition that took him to victory in 2016. How will that affect its Disordering impacts on the global stage?  Jason is joined by party guests -- FP deputy editor Sasha Polakow-Suransky and Jane Kinninmont -- to break down what the results mean for global order.  Sasha shares insights into anti-immigrant sentiment and attempts to channel the angry anti-system voters from his home state of Michigan, while Jane discusses European defense arrangements and is pressed by Jason to provide a sliver of Celtic optimism. They attempt to explain the implications for the rest of the world: the transatlantic relationship, European security, Ukraine, tariff wars, the Middle East (Iran/Gaza), and China. Jason ends the episode with a forlorn farewell. He sees no silver lining, only peak disorder ahead.  Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ And Pray that the Disorderer-and-Chief doesn’t cancel American democracy  Show Notes Links  To Get Sasha’s Book ‘Go Back to Where You Came From’: https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/sasha-polakow-suransky/go-back-to-where-you-came-from/9781568585932/   Check out his debate-style podcast Counterpoint: https://foreignpolicy.com/podcasts/counterpoint/   On the Demographic shifts and the re-ordering (or rather re-disordering) of American politics from racial/ethnic cleavages onto class lines  On ‘Defending Europe with less America’: https://ecfr.eu/publication/defending-europe-with-less-america/?amp   ‘There is hope [maybe if you are Celtic but not if you are Anglo-American] — 10 ways to be prepared and grounded for another Trump presidency’: https://wagingnonviolence.org/2024/11/10-things-to-do-if-trump-wins/  On Michigan’s Arab voters: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/10/28/election-michigan-harris-trump-arab-americans-lebanon-war-israel-gaza/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=ZWxlY3Rpb24tbWljaGlnYW4taGFycmlzLXRydW1wLWFyYWItYW1lcmljYW5zLWxlYmFub24td2FyLWlzcmFlbC1nYXph&pid=OC20506955   And the ‘Uncommitted’ movement: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/08/21/michigan-biden-harris-gaza-uncommitted-arab-vote/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=bWljaGlnYW4tYmlkZW4taGFycmlzLWdhemEtdW5jb21taXR0ZWQtYXJhYi12b3Rl&pid=OC20506955   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What do professional ‘futurists’ think about global disorder? With our current world seemingly in never ending Disorder that won’t be immediately cured by the election results, it can be hard to put your head above the parapet and try to see into the future. Furthermore, given the rapidly changing pace of technology, the 2050s, 2070s, and 2100s feel a long way out. Is it worth trying to forecast and plan for the future? If countries started planning now, could we see an Ordered future?   In this episode of Disorder, Jason opens with his feelings about election day and then hands over to Jane Kinninmont to host Cat Tully, who works with governments, civil society and young leaders around the world to facilitate structured conversations about what the future could and should look like. She is the founder of the School of International Futures, and has previously served in the UK government, working on strategy in the prime minister’s office and the Foreign Office.   Jane and Cat delve into the complexities of forecasting the future, discussing the importance of collective foresight in navigating global disorder. They discuss what was and wasn’t achieved by the recent UN Summit For The Future, the role of strategic foresight in preparing for potential shocks, and how people around the world are working to push governments beyond short-term populist priories. Finally, they Order the Disorder by talking about the importance of youth engagement, and using futures and foresight methodologies to build a better future rather than viewing the future through the lens of panic and polycrisis.  Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn  Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ And Pray that the Disorderer-and-Chief doesn’t win  Show Notes Links  The School of International Futures’ Implementation Handbook for the wellbeing of future generations: https://soif.org.uk/implementation-handbook/  UK Government’s brief guide to futures thinking and foresight: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/635931b18fa8f557d066c1b1/A_Brief_Guide_to_Futures_Thinking_and_Foresight_-_2022.pdf  A great book by Jane McGonagal on training your imagination to think about the future: https://janemcgonigal.com/2021/12/17/imaginable-how-to-see-the-future-coming-and-feel-ready-for-anything-even-things-that-seem-impossible-today/  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

To celebrate Halloween, Jason goes on the Keen On show hosted by friend of the Disorder Pod, Andrew Keen, to talk about America’s spooky election and the crazy conspiracy theories that are floating around this election cycle. What does it really mean when people say the 2020 election was stolen or that Bill Gates implants people with microchips via their Covid Vaccines?   Conspiracy theories are not only, not new, they are a core part of how campaigns of social change are articulated. The more radical the change – the French Revolution, the rise of Hitler, or Trump’s election—the more paramount the need for conspiracy theories to motivate the required action need to bring it about. Given his recent study of the phenomenon, Jason articulates his view that the conspiratorial rhetoric around this election embodies a new ‘us vs. them’ turn in American political life. He urges Andrew and listeners to Read beneath the surface! And Unpack the True hidden meaning of the conspiracy!  Pointing to his New European Article (published this week), Jason concludes: Conspiracy theories are a socially acceptable way of articulating a Politics of Ressentiment – of pitting groups against each other. Just like Brexit, Trump has signalled that he will ‘take back control’ from the minorities, Jews, uppity feminists, transgender activists, immigrants, urban lawyers, and all the other groups you hate and feel have too much power. Spooky indeed!  Show Notes Links  Read Jason’s New European Article here: https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/a-lizard-persons-guide-to-us-election-conspiracy-theories/   And revisit last week’s Disorder episode 76, ‘The System is Rigged: Conspiracy theories and the revenge of the losers’ with Joe Uscinski here:  https://open.spotify.com/episode/2nvlI3hR1VFyMbgKaZddyi  Check out Andrew Keen’s Substack here: https://keenon.substack.com/   Listen to Andrew podcast on Spotify here: https://open.spotify.com/show/1kkWdvi3xdG7JvTbQ0l9Ho   And one of his fun episodes on Intellectual Objectivity here: https://keenon.substack.com/p/in-defense-of-geeky-intellectuals   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices