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Goldman Sachs Exchanges

How a popular trade collapsed — and why it matters

Aug 13, 2024
Kamakshya Trivedi, head of Global Foreign Exchange at Goldman Sachs Research, and Praneet Shah, co-head of Global G10 FX Options Trading, dive into the fallout of the Japanese yen carry trade collapse. They break down how investors exploit low-interest currencies for high returns, and why the recent unwind sent shockwaves through global markets. The duo analyzes historical trends, current economic signals, and the implications for investment portfolios amid rising market volatility. Their insights help clarify the evolving landscape of currency trading.
25:32

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • The unwinding of the yen carry trade highlights the impact of shifting macroeconomic conditions on global investment strategies and market volatility.
  • Despite current challenges, interest in carry trades persists as investors continue to seek opportunities between low and high-yielding currencies.

Deep dives

Understanding the Yen Carry Trade

A carry trade involves borrowing in a currency with low interest rates and investing in a currency with higher interest rates, enabling investors to earn the spread between the two. The yen has historically been a low-yielding currency, making it attractive for funding investments in higher-yielding currencies like the US dollar or emerging markets. For instance, there was a significant interest rate differential between Japan and the US following the pandemic, creating opportunities for substantial returns. Additionally, investors benefited not only from the interest rate spread but also from potential currency movements, which could amplify profits.

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