RenMac RenMac Off-Script: Don't Fist Fight the Fed
Jul 25, 2025
Dive into the humorous yet serious interplay between Trump and the Fed, shedding light on their political dynamics. Explore how tariffs complicate corporate margins and consumer impacts amidst rising inflation. Discover the nuances of the U.S. market's performance through equal weight indices, challenging bearish narratives. AI's disruptive role in IT consulting also takes center stage, revealing the existential challenges for traditional firms. Finally, navigate the stagnant labor market's impacts on job seekers and the complexities of global economic shifts.
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Trump's Fed Visit Was Theater
- Trump's visit to the Fed was more about political theater than meaningful policy change.
- Powell remains Fed Chair as firing him would risk market turmoil and higher bond risk premiums.
Japan-U.S. Tariff Deal Insight
- Japan and the U.S. reached a tariff deal lowering rates to 15%, better than Trump's threatened 25%.
- This may pave the way for similar agreements with the EU and Korea ahead of reciprocal tariff deadlines.
Japanese Market Changes Indicate Risk
- Japan's political shifts coincide with rising Nikkei and JGB yields, reflecting normalization risks.
- Yen carry trade unwind poses a hidden global liquidity risk yet to impact U.S. equities significantly.