Barry Eichengreen on Fixing the Debt Problem, Dollar Demise and Tech Impacts
Sep 22, 2023
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Barry Eichengreen, Professor of Economics, discusses the rise of global debt, the differences between academic and policy conferences, the currency debate in emerging markets, strategies for reducing debt, the challenges of debt restructurings, and the potential impact of AI on productivity growth.
Rising public debt is a global issue tied to crises like the financial crisis and the pandemic, and countries struggle to pay down high debt levels.
Financial repression as a solution for high debt levels is limited in today's global economy due to financial liberalization and digital advancements.
Deep dives
Trends in Global Public Debt
Barry Eichen Green presents a paper on global public debt at the Jackson Hole symposium. He highlights that the problem of rising public debts is global, with trends showing an increase in debt levels across all economies. The jumps in debt are often associated with global crises like the financial crisis and the pandemic. Eichen Green emphasizes that while countries are good at running budget deficits to respond to emergencies, they struggle with paying down high public debt.
The Challenge of Primary Surpluses
Eichen Green discusses the idea of running primary surpluses as a way to reduce high debts. However, he argues that this approach is politically challenging and not universally applicable. While it has been successful in some European countries, he suggests that in the United States, the problem is not excessive public spending but rather insufficient taxation. Political polarization and slow economic growth further complicate the implementation of primary surpluses as a solution to high debt levels.
Financial Repression as a Solution
Eichen Green explores the concept of financial repression as a means to lower the burden of debt. However, he argues that the effectiveness of financial repression has diminished compared to previous decades due to financial liberalization and digital advancements. While regulation and controls can prevent markets from operating freely, Eichen Green asserts that the scope for financial repression as a solution to high debt levels is limited in today's global economy.
Inflation as a Debt Reduction Tool
Eichen Green examines the potential impact of inflation on reducing debt burdens. He acknowledges that unexpected inflation can temporarily lower debt-to-GDP ratios, but this benefit is short-term and dissipates as interest rates rise. Additionally, he cautions that reliance on inflation as a debt reduction strategy can pose risks, such as higher debt servicing costs and potential instability in financial markets. Therefore, he suggests that inflation should not be viewed as a sustainable long-term solution to high debt levels.
Barry Eichengreen, Professor of Economics and Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley, is a former senior policy adviser at the International Monetary Fund. He is the author of many books, including most recently “In Defense of Public Debt”. He was also a presenter at the Fed’s 2023 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. In the podcast, we talk about the rise of debt around the world, how the structure of debt has changed, financial repression, and much more.