The Rundown 12/24/25: The AI Shakeout, Canada’s Defense Pivot, & Predictions for 2026

In the final episode of 2025, Matt Cohen and John Ruffolo reflect on a turbulent year for technology, capital markets, and Canadian innovation, while looking ahead to the forces that will shape 2026. The conversation opens with Canada’s largest private startup round of the year, a $1.76B raise by Toronto based HydroStar Energy Storage, and uses it as a springboard to examine the AI shakeout now underway. John describes the sector as entering a “forest fire” phase, where overfunded and undifferentiated companies fall away, creating room for stronger, more durable players to emerge.

Matt and John then explore whether 2026 will finally mark a return of major tech IPOs, or whether the regulatory burden and liquidity options in private markets will keep companies like SpaceX, Stripe, and OpenAI on the sidelines. Despite interest rate cuts, the hosts argue capital markets remain constrained and selective.

The discussion shifts to Canada’s strategic priorities, including a growing focus on defense technology viewed through a dual use lens of sovereignty and innovation. As talent emigration rises and domestic risk capital lags, the episode closes with a clear warning. Without addressing capital access, taxation, and long term retention, Canada risks becoming a leaky boat, losing its builders and economic future to the United States.

The 2025 AI Shakeout & The 2026 Forest Fire (02:06)

John predicts a period of simultaneous “carnage” and opportunity in AI, comparing the market to a forest fire that burns the weak but creates fertile ground for the strong. They debate which companies are the true “sequoias” built to last.

IPO or Bust? The Reluctant March to Public Markets (04:57)

With rumors swirling around SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI, Matt and John explore why 2026 might see major IPOs. John argues that many are driven not by ambition, but by investor pressure for liquidity, calling it a “panacea” for fund timelines rather than a strategic goal.

Rate Cuts & Stagnation: Why Cheap Money Isn’t Fixing Canada’s Economy (07:28)

Despite multiple rate cuts in 2025, investment activity remains sluggish. The hosts diagnose a holding pattern for Canada’s economy, where further cuts risk devaluing the dollar without spurring meaningful productivity gains.

Bullets, Bombs, and Blockchain: Canada’s New Defense Tech Mandate (08:17)

Matt highlights new government funds for defense tech. John reframes the spending as critical for “physical sovereignty” in a tech-driven Cold War, emphasizing the “dual-use” nature of investments in AI, quantum, and satellite technology.

Predictions for 2026: Agents, Physical AI, and Nuclear’s Comeback (11:23)

The hosts share their forecasts: Matt bets on AI “agents” automating complex workflows and tangible ROI finally hitting enterprise software. John is bullish on “AI meeting the physical world” through robotics and autonomous machinery, and predicts a major comeback for nuclear energy.

Canada’s Leaky Boat: The Capital and Talent Retention Crisis (18:32)

Addressing record-high emigration, John identifies the twin failures crippling Canadian innovation: a lack of domestic risk capital at scale and an uncompetitive personal tax regime. He warns that without urgent fixes in the next budget, the brain drain will accelerate, with U.S. capital actively pulling companies and founders south.

Connect with John Ruffolo on LinkedIn: https://ca.linkedin.com/in/joruffolo

Connect with Matt Cohen on LinkedIn: https://ca.linkedin.com/in/matt-cohen1

Visit the Ripple Ventures website: https://www.rippleventures.com/

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