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Rates & Barrels: A show about Baseball
Live From First Pitch Arizona 2024!
Nov 4, 2024
Max Bay, the brilliant mind behind the Stuff+ model for advanced baseball analytics, joins the conversation live from Arizona. He dives into recent updates to the model and discusses the future of pitching metrics. Danny Kirwin and Cooper Adams from the Red Sox share their inspiring journey from undrafted college athletes to the Arizona Fall League. The discussion also highlights strategies for roster construction and the surprising trends MLB fans should watch out for in 2024. Get ready for exciting insights as the new season approaches!
01:22:39
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Quick takeaways
- DIPS theory's relevance is declining as pitch shapes increasingly influence batted ball outcomes, necessitating a fresh analysis approach.
- Recent advancements in projection models emphasize the need for nuanced understanding of pitch effectiveness and the challenges in accurately assessing change-ups.
- As draft strategies evolve, focusing on elite pitchers while seeking late-round gems balances reliability and upside for a competitive roster.
Deep dives
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The Evolution of DIPS Theory
The discussion around the Defense Independent Pitching Statistic (DIPS) theory has evolved, indicating a possible decline in its relevance. Traditionally, DIPS suggested that pitchers lack control over balls put in play, but recent modeling techniques have started to demonstrate that pitch shapes impact batted ball outcomes significantly. This shift suggests that further analysis of batted ball events could yield more reliable predictions about a pitcher’s future performance. The conversation highlights the need for a more nuanced understanding of how pitch types and shapes contribute to overall pitching effectiveness.
New Insights in Player Projections
Advancements in player projection models reveal a growing capability to assess a player's true talent based on pitch shape data and performance metrics. These developments allow for improved estimates of future batted-ball events without the necessity of extensive historical data. However, the variance in outcomes for certain pitches, like change-ups, complicates the modeling efforts, requiring more samples to truly gauge a pitcher's effectiveness. This emphasizes the importance of patience and ongoing analysis in refining player projections.
The Importance of Context in Player Performance
Context plays a crucial role in understanding player performance, especially when it comes to comparing models and real-world results. For instance, a pitcher may have strong underlying metrics yet struggle in practical applications due to challenges like command issues or poor matchup scenarios. Teams and analysts must identify and understand the intricate dynamics between a player's primary pitches and their effectiveness against specific batter tendencies. This insight helps in making more informed decisions about player utilization and roster construction.
Draft Strategy in Changing League Environments
With the changing landscape of league environments, drafting strategies need to adapt, particularly regarding pitchers and batting averages. The current trend suggests focusing on fewer elite pitchers while also casting a wider net for late-round value picks based on health and performance projections. It is crucial to find a balance between securing reliable players and taking calculated risks with significant upside. This approach allows for a more competitive roster while remaining flexible for in-season adjustments based on player performance and emerging trends.
Eno and DVR are live at First Pitch Arizona. Max Bay, parent of Stuff+ joins the show to discuss a few changes with the latest update to the model. Danny Kirwin and Cooper Adams from the Red Sox organization stop by to discuss their path as undrafted college players into Boston's system and into the Arizona Fall League.
Plus, Eno and DVR discuss a few of the biggest surprises relative to the Stuff+ model in 2024, and their preferred roster construction strategies as the 2025 fantasy baseball draft season gets underway.
Rundown
1:02 Is DIPS Theory Dead?
9:46 Looking Beyond the Projections & Models for an Edge
11:56 Predicting the Next Iteration of Changes to Stuff+
18:59 Danny Kirwin & Cooper Adams Join the Show
23:31 How Did Tread Help Danny & Cooper Make the Leap From College to Signing with Boston?
29:26 Unique Challenges in the Arizona Fall League
34:06 The Biggest Movers in the Updated Stuff+ Model
43:03 What Is Your Ideal Roster Construction Approach as Draft Season Begins?
60:29 Considerations for Players Returning From Second Tommy John Surgery
Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris
Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper
email: ratesandbarrels@gmail.com
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