Discover the connection between dictators and germophobia, the deceptive tactics used during the annexation of Crimea, the consequences of speaking truth to power in oppressive regimes like the Soviet Union, and the influence of germophobia on decisions in Putin's failed invasion of Ukraine.
Dictators often exhibit germophobia due to extreme caution and fear of risks.
Salami tactics involve incremental moves to manipulate perceptions and achieve territorial gains.
Deep dives
Events Unfolding in Crimea
In March 2014, BBC journalist John Simpson and his cameraman encountered a hostile situation in Crimea. Little Green Men, unidentified forces, took control of the region, causing confusion and tension. The annexation of Crimea by Russia involved deceptive tactics, including the presence of these mysterious troops. Despite international scrutiny and skepticism, Crimea’s referendum led to its annexation by Russia, highlighting the use of ambiguity in political strategies.
Understanding Salami Tactics
Game theorist Thomas Schelling's concept of Salami tactics is applied to explain how aggressors make incremental moves to avoid strong reactions. By gradually taking control, as exemplified in Crimea's case, Russia achieved its objectives without immediate retaliation. The strategy involves creating confusion and denying direct involvement to manipulate perceptions and achieve territorial gains.
Dictators and Germophobia
Common among autocrats, germophobia is linked to dictators' obsessive hygiene practices and aversion to risks related to health. Leaders like Putin and Kim Jong-un exhibit extreme caution due to fears of contamination or poisoning. Their eccentric behaviors form part of a wider paranoia that influences their attitudes and decisions in governing.
The Impact of Truth and Psychological Safety
Through historical accounts like Peter Palkinski's, the significance of truthful disclosures and psychological safety in organizations is underscored. The suppression of truth in repressive regimes like the Soviet Union led to catastrophic outcomes and stifled progress. Creating environments where openness is encouraged can prevent mistakes and foster genuine accountability.
Why are so many autocrats germaphobes? Why was the truth so dangerous for Soviet engineers? And what can salami reveal to us about the mind of Vladimir Putin?
This is the first of two special episodes in partnership with HBO's new series "The Regime". Tim Harford investigates real-life dictatorships and the social science that explains them, drawing on insights from game theory and psychology.
For a full list of sources, see the show notes at timharford.com.