Carnegie Politika Podcast Chaos Is a Ladder. Russia’s New Ballistic Threat and Its Consequences for the West.
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Dec 4, 2024 James Acton, Co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment, joins to discuss the recent developments in the Ukraine conflict and Russia's new Oreshnik missile. He analyzes the potential for nuclear escalation and its implications for Western decision-making. The conversation touches on the evolution of Russia’s military strategy, the historical context of missile diplomacy, and lessons from past arms control agreements. With tensions high, Acton offers insights into navigating this precarious geopolitical landscape.
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Current Escalation Risks
- James Acton assesses current escalation risks as low, despite recent deep strikes and missile tests.
- Putin's aims align with an incoming US president, reducing his incentive to escalate.
Gradual Aid Approach
- The West's gradual aid increase avoided a clear escalation breakpoint for Russia.
- A sudden full-scale aid provision at the war's start could have triggered a nuclear war.
Oreshnik Missile Launch
- Russia launched the Oreshnik missile, a new high-speed, long-range ballistic missile, at Ukraine.
- The missile had multiple warheads without explosives, possibly demonstrating accuracy.