Hot and cold wars: How Eurasia shaped the modern geopolitical world
Feb 21, 2025
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Hal Brands, a Henry Kissinger Distinguished Professor at Johns Hopkins and senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, explores how Eurasian dynamics have shaped global conflicts from WWI to today. He discusses the emergence of a second Eurasian century, driven by authoritarian powers like Russia, China, and Iran. Brands reveals the strategic alliances forming among these regimes against U.S. influence and analyzes how Donald Trump's vision might shift global power dynamics, affecting America's role and alliances in a changing world.
The historical perspective of the Eurasian Century illustrates how contests among major powers have continuously shaped global conflicts and geopolitical dynamics.
The rise of a coalition of autocratic states challenging U.S. influence underscores the need for democratic leaders to adapt to evolving geopolitical landscapes.
Deep dives
The Eurasian Century and Its Modern Context
The concept of the 'Eurasian Century' highlights the geopolitical dynamics shaping the modern world by focusing on the historical and ongoing contests among major powers on the Eurasian landmass. This perspective emphasizes how events such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine, China's assertiveness towards Taiwan, and Iran's regional aspirations are interconnected in a larger struggle for influence over Eurasia. The historical trajectory from the First World War to the present showcases how the competition for control over this pivotal region has been critical in shaping global conflicts. Understanding this context is essential for democratic leaders as they navigate the complexities of contemporary geopolitics.
The Influence of Geopolitical Thinkers
The podcast delves into the contributions of influential geopolitical thinkers such as Alfred Mackinder, who posited that control over Eurasia would determine global power dynamics. Mackinder’s idea of Eurasia as the 'heartland' reflected how technological advancements, particularly in transportation, would facilitate military movements across the vast territory. This theoretical framework has inspired a lineage of geopolitical thought that contrasts democratic approaches to international relations with those advocated by autocratic regimes, highlighting differing views on land and sea power. The resulting geopolitical landscape has drawn lines between powers seeking to dominate Eurasia and those striving to counter their influence.
Current Alliances and Autocratic Ambitions
The emergence of a new coalition of autocratic states poses a significant challenge to the established global order, driven by a shared opposition to U.S. influence. Countries like Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran exhibit both cooperation and competition, demonstrating that their alliances, while often temporary, are significantly bolstered by their mutual enmity towards the U.S. This pushback against American hegemony is indicative of broader geopolitical realignments, where partnerships between autocratic regimes grow stronger in response to perceived threats. Consequently, the evolving landscape suggests that if the U.S. diminishes its role in global affairs, it could lead to increasingly aggressive actions by these states, reminiscent of historical power struggles in Eurasia.
Hal Brands argues that, while American power is often seen as dominating the modern era, it is in fact part of a long and violent Eurasian century. From world war one to today's geopolitical tensions involving the US and the authoritarian axis of China, Iran and Russia, the Eurasian landmass has consistently shaped global conflict.
This week Mark Leonard welcomes Hal Brands, the Henry Kissinger distinguished professor at the John Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and columnist for Bloomberg Opinion, to discuss his new book, The Eurasian Century: Hot Wars, Cold Wars, and the Making of the Modern World. What inspired him to write it? How is the second Eurasian century, driven by the authoritarian axis of Russia, China, and Iran, emerging? And how does Donald Trump change the equation between liberal powers and the authoritarian Eurasian heartland?