The Acquirers Podcast

Value After Hours S05 E16: Cam Harvey on 10-3 Inversions, Recession Risk, False Signals and the Fed

43 snips
May 1, 2023
Ask episode
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
1
Introduction
00:00 • 2min
2
How to Predict Recessions Successfully
01:47 • 2min
3
The Importance of Economic Forecasting
03:47 • 2min
4
The Importance of Predictability in the Economy
05:53 • 2min
5
The Importance of a PhD
07:54 • 2min
6
The 10-3 Inversion
09:39 • 1min
7
The Importance of Anchoring With a Short-Term Instrument
11:06 • 2min
8
The Inversion of the Bond Market Model
13:11 • 2min
9
The 10, Two, and the Future of the Fed
15:32 • 2min
10
The Importance of a One Variable Model
17:13 • 2min
11
The False Signal: A Flat Yield Curve
19:19 • 2min
12
The Effect of Layoffs on Unemployment
21:22 • 2min
13
The Heisenberg Principle of Self Fulfilling Prophecy
23:02 • 2min
14
The Importance of Knowing What to Expect
25:19 • 2min
15
The Yield Curve Inverting Is Causative
26:50 • 3min
16
The Fed's Decision to Increase Rates
30:16 • 2min
17
The Importance of Inverting the Yield Curve
32:25 • 3min
18
Silicon Valley Bank Solved the SBD Debt Crisis
35:32 • 2min
19
The Inverted Yield Curve and the Stress in the Financial System
37:17 • 2min
20
The Fed's Analysis of the Banking System
38:59 • 2min
21
The Importance of Data-Driven Policy
40:38 • 2min
22
The Risks of a Dysfunctional Financial System
42:36 • 2min
23
The Fragile Market of Commercial Space
44:16 • 2min
24
The Role of Regulators in Banking
46:22 • 2min
25
The Second Channel of Causality
47:55 • 2min
26
The Fed's Strategy and Own Goal
49:29 • 2min
27
The Fed's Mistake to Not See Housing Inflation as a Permanent Indicator
51:11 • 2min
28
The Predictive Ability of Bond Markets Outside of the US
53:24 • 2min
29
The Importance of Japanification in Predicting Growth
55:43 • 2min
30
The Inversion of the Fed's Predictive Ability
57:31 • 3min
31
The Causal Relationship Between Trez-Rays and Interest Rates
01:00:15 • 2min
32
The Three Components of the Yield
01:02:44 • 3min
33
The Fed's Negative Scenario
01:05:36 • 2min
34
The Future of Finance
01:07:07 • 2min
35
The Implications of Web3 for Cloud Computing
01:08:57 • 2min