What to Expect in 2024: Predictions from Niall Ferguson, Tyler Cowen, Peter Attia, John McWhorter and More
Jan 5, 2024
01:49:29
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Experts like Niall Ferguson and Tyler Cowen predict potential World Wars and the challenging domestic situation in the US in 2024. They also discuss health trends, pop culture, dressing young girls, emergence of new words, politicization of language, and economic predictions. Concerns about ongoing conflicts such as the war in Ukraine, Russia's aggression, tensions in Israel, and the potential Taiwan Strait crisis are also discussed.
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Quick takeaways
The economy is expected to be relatively stable in 2024, with low inflation and innovative sectors driving growth.
Gen Z slang terms like Stan, Cap, Snatched, and Pookie were discussed, highlighting the ever-evolving nature of language and slang.
Predictions for 2024 included a bullish outlook on crypto, AI, and Israel, with mixed sentiments on TikTok and blue cities.
The upcoming presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden was discussed, emphasizing the need for voter engagement and understanding the dynamics of American politics.
Deep dives
The Economy in 2024
The economy is expected to be relatively stable in 2024, with low inflation and innovative sectors such as AI and biomedicine driving growth. Housing prices may continue to rise in quality areas, while rents stabilize. Food prices are likely to remain high, and gas prices are expected to remain at their current level. Overall, the economic outlook is positive, but concerns about future uncertainties persist.
Gen Z Slang
Gen Z slang terms like Stan, Cap, Snatched, and Pookie were discussed. The meanings of these terms were explained, with examples of their usage. The ever-evolving nature of language and slang was highlighted, along with the challenges of keeping up with new slang expressions.
2024 Predictions
Predictions for 2024 included a bullish outlook on crypto, AI, and Israel, while sentiments on TikTok and blue cities were more mixed. The importance of staying informed and adapting to changing trends and circumstances was emphasized. The role of economics, politics, and social factors in shaping the future was acknowledged, with a cautious optimism towards the overall outlook.
The Election of 2024
The upcoming presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden was discussed, with a sense of dread expressed by some. The potential dynamics of the Republican Party and the base were explored, highlighting the continued polarization in American politics. The importance of understanding and engaging with the election process was emphasized for voters.
Understanding the American Mood
The dissonance between economic data and public mood was examined, acknowledging people's concerns and anxieties despite relatively positive economic indicators. The impact of past crises and uncertainties on public sentiment and the need to address these concerns were recognized. The ongoing importance of individual liberty, talent, and optimism in shaping America's future was highlighted.
The War in Ukraine
The war in Ukraine against Russian aggression continues, with Russia currently appearing to have the upper hand. Ukraine is running out of ammunition and is in need of more troops. The United States has lost interest in supporting Ukraine financially, and without significant aid, Ukraine's chances of winning the war are slim. The war is expected to continue throughout 2024, with a potential stalemate similar to the Korean War. The outcome of the war heavily depends on Russia's actions and whether Putin's leadership remains.
China's Plans for Taiwan
China's plans for Taiwan are a cause for concern. While the official prediction places the timeframe for a potential Chinese move on Taiwan between 2025 and 2027, there is a chance that China may act earlier than expected, particularly if there are favorable circumstances. The United States is reluctant to engage in any kind of war with Iran, and this reluctance could embolden Iran's proxies, such as Hamas and Hezbollah, to act against Israel. The situation in the Middle East remains volatile, and an escalation of the conflict, particularly involving Iran, is a real possibility.
The Threat to the Pax Americana and Western Alliances
The current state of affairs poses a significant challenge to the Pax Americana and Western alliances. Coordinated efforts between Russia, China, and Iran to challenge American predominance in various regions create a more divided and capable opposition. The United States' ability to honor and maintain its commitments to its allies is in question, especially with changing administrations and domestic political pressures. The shift in attitudes of young Americans toward freedom and their support for anti-Western ideologies is also a concern. Losing the Pax Americana and American economic might could have severe consequences, including economic challenges, devaluation of the dollar, and restrictions on the free press.
Last year was certainly eventful. It brought spy balloons, Donald Trump’s indictments, the coronation of a king, the fall of a crypto prince, and no shortage of chaos in Washington, from the ousting of Kevin McCarthy to the farcical George Santos scandal. Oh, and then there’s the small matter of two major wars, one in Gaza and one in Ukraine. Plus, ongoing tension between the U.S. and China. On a cheerier note, 2023 was also the year of Barbenheimer, the year it felt like AI really arrived, and the year the 90s were finally cool again.
But, as crazy as last year was, will the next twelve months prove that it was actually just the calm before the storm?
For many of us, 2024 begins with a distinct feeling of dread.
The Middle East grows increasingly unstable, the war in Ukraine is not going Kyiv’s way, and Xi Jinping’s rhetoric gets more bellicose by the day. Here at home, there’s the small matter of the election from hell, in which American voters face the unappetizing prospect of once again having to choose between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
To try and figure out whether things will really be as terrible as we fear, today on Honestly Bari Weiss and Free Press editor Olly Wiseman are calling up some of our favorite experts to get a better sense of what’s coming down the pike.
The great Tyler Cowen looks into the economic crystal ball. Leandra Medine Cohen clues us in on fashion trends in 2024. Our very own Suzy Weiss talks through the cultural year ahead. Linguist John McWhorter looks at language. Doctor and longevity expert Peter Attia tells how to start the year healthy. Eagle-eyed political observers Nate Silver and Frank Luntz try to forecast the election. And historian Niall Ferguson tells us whether we’re right to be having nightmares about World War III.
Some guests cheered us up, others freaked us out. All of them were a pleasure to talk to. Welcome to 2024!
