Unexpected Value - Poker · Daily Fantasy · Sports Betting #108: Eat Your Own Tail
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Sep 25, 2023 Daniel Hutchings, known as Nerdy Tenor, is a seasoned DFS player with a unique analytical approach. He dives into the impact of contest simulations on the DFS ecosystem, emphasizing their varied utility in different tournament sizes. The conversation also explores the balance of speed and quality in last-minute lineup adjustments and the competitive dynamics influenced by evolving strategies. With humor and insight, Hutchings sheds light on the importance of understanding expected value, ownership projections, and the role of community in shaping DFS strategies.
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Market Still Has Enough Weak Players
- Daniel Hutchings believes the DFS market will keep enough weak players that skilled players can remain profitable.
- He thinks sharing methods nudges progress but won't eliminate edges for top players.
Field Modeling Is Powerful But Fragile
- Contest simulations that model the field are conceptually smart and useful.
- Accurate ownership and mixing combinations are critical to produce realistic simulated fields.
Use Sims To Rescue Big Losers
- Use sim tools first to rescue badly losing players: they can move you toward break-even quickly.
- Expect smaller gains if you already are a small winner or profitable player.