Peter Williams, a macro strategist at 22V Research, dives into the intricacies of the upcoming rate cut cycle. He unpacks Jerome Powell's speech from Jackson Hole, discussing potential rate cut sizes and implications for the labor market. The conversation highlights how unemployment and evolving economic signals shape Federal Reserve decisions. They also explore the concept of R-star and its shift in focus toward labor dynamics, along with the historical context of monetary policy responses to unexpected economic data.
The Federal Reserve is shifting its focus from inflation control to labor market stability, indicating a new economic policy paradigm.
Expectations for rate cuts are intensifying, with potential cuts ranging from 25 to 50 basis points depending on labor market indicators.
Deep dives
Shift in Economic Focus
The Federal Reserve's recent emphasis has shifted from managing inflation to protecting the labor market, reflecting a new paradigm in their approach to economic policy. Chair Powell indicated that achieving a balance without further job losses is now a primary concern, a stark contrast to previous years when inflation was the dominant issue. With rising unemployment not stemming from large-scale layoffs, it suggests that Powell is confident in the economy's resilience despite potential risks. This change implies a more cautious stance from the Fed, as they prioritize stability in employment over aggressive inflation control.
Anticipated Rate Cuts
Expectations for upcoming rate cuts have intensified, with market speculation leaning towards a 25 to 50 basis point reduction as a likely scenario. The timing of these cuts is paramount, with the most immediate focus being the August payroll numbers, which could influence the Fed's decision significantly. An early move by the Fed is plausible to counteract any perceived weakness in the labor market, with some members expressing a desire for a more proactive approach. The decision to cut rates will not only impact immediate economic sentiment but could also set a precedent for future monetary policy actions.
Guidelines for Future Rate Cuts
There is considerable debate over the implications of 25 versus 50 basis point cuts, with both options having distinct pros and cons. Market reactions to these cuts could vary based on investor perceptions of the Fed's intentions concerning the labor market stability and inflation risks. A more aggressive 50 basis point cut might signal a significant concern about economic weaknesses, while a more gradual approach could suggest a more measured view of the economy's health. The Fed's stance will likely guide market expectations and influence overall economic activity moving forward.
Historical Context of Rate Cuts
Historically, rate cut cycles have varied significantly based on the economic climate, primarily falling into two categories: mid-cycle corrections and crisis responses. Current conditions suggest a mid-cycle adjustment rather than a reaction to a recession, indicating relatively moderate cuts. Additionally, the Fed's perspective on the long-term neutral rate has evolved, with recent data suggesting that R-star, the natural rate of interest, may be higher now than in previous years. This context serves as a backdrop for understanding how the Fed might implement cuts while managing expectations in a shifting economic landscape.
At Jackson Hole, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell gave a clear signal that the rate cut cycle is likely to start in September. But of course that just opens more questions. Will it be a 25bps cut? Will it be 50? Could it be two 50s in a row? When does it stop? On today's episode, we speak with Peter Williams, a macro strategist at 22V Research. He walks us through his interpretation of Powell's speech and what to look for as the rate cut cycle begins.