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Odd Lots

This Is What The Rate Cut Cycle Could Look Like

Aug 27, 2024
Peter Williams, a macro strategist at 22V Research, dives into the intricacies of the upcoming rate cut cycle. He unpacks Jerome Powell's speech from Jackson Hole, discussing potential rate cut sizes and implications for the labor market. The conversation highlights how unemployment and evolving economic signals shape Federal Reserve decisions. They also explore the concept of R-star and its shift in focus toward labor dynamics, along with the historical context of monetary policy responses to unexpected economic data.
26:32

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Quick takeaways

  • The Federal Reserve is shifting its focus from inflation control to labor market stability, indicating a new economic policy paradigm.
  • Expectations for rate cuts are intensifying, with potential cuts ranging from 25 to 50 basis points depending on labor market indicators.

Deep dives

Shift in Economic Focus

The Federal Reserve's recent emphasis has shifted from managing inflation to protecting the labor market, reflecting a new paradigm in their approach to economic policy. Chair Powell indicated that achieving a balance without further job losses is now a primary concern, a stark contrast to previous years when inflation was the dominant issue. With rising unemployment not stemming from large-scale layoffs, it suggests that Powell is confident in the economy's resilience despite potential risks. This change implies a more cautious stance from the Fed, as they prioritize stability in employment over aggressive inflation control.

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