Horns of a Dilemma Economic Cooperation Across Enemy Lines
Sep 9, 2025
Mariya Grinberg, an Assistant Professor of Political Science at MIT and author of "Trade in War," explores the intriguing dynamics of trade during wartime. She challenges the notion that economic exchanges cease amidst conflict, discussing her wartime trade theory. Grinberg reveals how states weigh military benefits against economic costs, with modern examples like the U.S.-China relationship and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Her insights shed light on the complexities of wartime trade policies and the persistence of economic interactions even in the face of war.
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Why Trade Continues In War
- States keep trading in war by balancing military harm from trade against economic costs of cutting it off.
- Trade policy during war is product-specific, based on conversion time and contribution to the economy.
Conversion Time Determines Risk
- Conversion time determines whether a traded product helps the enemy in the current war or only later.
- If conversion takes longer than expected war length, states will often permit that trade.
Delay Conversion By Rerouting Trade
- Increase conversion time by routing goods through third parties to allow more wartime trade without aiding battlefield outcomes.
- Use transport and intermediary routing strategically to extend the enemy's ability to convert goods into military use.
