Macro Mondays Oil, Metals, and More Geopolitical Risk | Macro Mondays: Feb. 2, 2026
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Feb 2, 2026 They unpack rising U.S.–Iran tensions and the possible fallout for oil markets. They explore the surprise ISM print and its links to capex, base metals, tech, and Bitcoin. They dissect a dramatic silver crash and forced deleveraging in metal ETFs. They discuss U.S. strategic mineral stockpiles, supply-chain weaponization, shipping risks, and how monetary and policy shifts could reshape cycles.
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U.S. Manufacturing Cycle Is Turning
- The ISM manufacturing rebound signals a potential U.S. capex-led cyclical comeback.
- Bonus depreciation likely accelerated orders and pushed the ISM above 50 faster than markets expected.
Silver's Flash Crash Was Mechanically Distorting
- Friday's silver flash crash was historically extreme and unusually large for a liquid metal market.
- Exchanges raising margins will force funds to cut nominal exposure and raise holding costs in the paper metals market.
Trim Exposure After Volatility Shock
- Reduce exposure to volatile, meme-driven metals until volatility normalizes and margins settle.
- Prefer niches with better risk-return profiles rather than holding large directional silver bets now.