The Circuit EP 132: NVIDIA Earnings + Ben's Thesis Time and Those Lumpy ASICs
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Aug 31, 2025 The podcast dives into Nvidia's recent earnings, highlighting mixed reactions and future guidance amidst geopolitical tensions, especially relating to China. Discussion centers on the complexities of ASICs in the AI landscape and the competitive positioning of major players like Dell and Marvell. They analyze the emerging importance of tokens in NDA’s earnings calls and the hurdles of integrating advanced AI systems. Insights on CapEx spending reveal the need for strategic clarity from companies, while exploring the shifting dynamics in the semiconductor industry.
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Market Priced Many Expectations
- Nvidia's earnings were broadly in line but market expectations made the guide feel disappointing.
- The company remains a massive growth business despite tempered near-term guidance.
China Licensing Is Messy And Risky
- The China licensing situation is unresolved and full of unknowns about terms and who gets paid.
- Delays risk reducing demand and ceding ground to domestic Chinese competitors.
Software Ecosystem Risk To NVIDIA
- If China can't access Blackwell quickly, local players and CUDA alternatives could entrench and erode NVIDIA's global moat.
- Software ecosystems matter as much as chips in long-term competitive advantage.