Why America Didn't Invade Taiwan: WWII Lessons for Xi's Invasion
Jun 6, 2024
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US Army Lt. Col. J. Kevin McKittrick discusses the abandoned WWII plan to invade Taiwan, emphasizing the importance of amphibious assaults. Topics include civil-military relations, Taiwan's defense concept, the relevance of traditional artillery, and the debate over a US rocket force.
Force ratios played a crucial role in WWII invasion planning, influencing strategic decision-making.
Taiwan's defense strategy emphasizes resilience, readiness, and targeted defensive measures for effective deterrence.
Deep dives
Operation Causeway and U.S. Invasion Plan for Formosa in 1944
In August 1944, Operation Causeway emerged among military planners aiming to secure Formosa as part of the U.S. Pacific campaign during World War II. The plan focused on seizing Formosa to cut off Japan's strategic lines of communication, support mainland China, and position bombers closer to Japan. Initially, they planned to take only the southern part of Taiwan to establish air bases and seize the port of Amoi for naval facilities, but General Marshall later decided on the entire island.
Force Ratios and Decision-Making on Seizing Taiwan
The force ratio requirement of three to one for U.S. troops against Japan's forces was considered necessary for success. General Marshall's decision to take the whole of Taiwan brought the force ratio up to five to one, requiring an additional 200,000 troops. Timing played a crucial role as Japan's reinforcement threatened to alter the force ratios back to two to one. The logistical constraints influenced the outcome, highlighting the importance of timely and strategic decision-making.
Significance of Force Ratios and Historical Insights
Force ratios, indicated by historical studies, play a pivotal role in military operations. The three to one force ratio often deemed necessary for success in attacks or amphibious assaults helps understand strategic planning. Strategic factors affecting force ratios include terrain, morale, equipment maintenance, and leadership quality, influencing operational outcomes. While not an absolute rule, force ratios remain a vital consideration in military planning and historical analysis.
Lessons for Taiwan's Defense Strategy and Operational Pause
Taiwan's defense strategy focuses on resilience and capability to deter conflict effectively. Enhancing force numbers and readiness are key factors to make an invasion challenging for the adversary. Transitioning effectively from a beachhead battle to homeland defense requires considering vulnerabilities during operational pauses. Implementing targeted defense strategies along limited avenues of approach and focusing on logistical disruptions can strengthen Taiwan's overall defense posture against potential invaders.
One does not simply invade Taiwan — but George Marshall once thought long and hard about it. In 1944, in the middle of the island-hopping campaign, American war planners set their sights on Japanese-controlled Formosa.
What did the American invasion plan look like? Why did Marshall decide to go another route? What lessons do this and other amphibious invasions hold for Taiwan’s current force posture?
To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed US Army Field Artillery Lieutenant Colonel J. Kevin McKittrick, currently at the Air War College in Alabama and a veteran of multiple deployments in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Co-hosting today is our resident Taiwan consultant Nicholas Welch.
We discuss:
The US military’s aborted plan to invade Taiwan during WWII;
Why bigger is better when it comes to amphibious assaults;
What the US got right and the CCP gets wrong about civil-military relations;
Taiwan’s defense concept, and the opportunities presented by “operational pause”;
The awful, unending relevance of traditional artillery in modern war;
And why the US doesn’t need its own “rocket force” … yet.