Ones and Tooze The Venezuela Conundrum
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Jan 9, 2026 
Adam Tooze, a history professor and foreign policy columnist known for his incisive analysis, joins for a deep dive into U.S. involvement in Venezuela. He challenges the notion that oil is the main motivator behind U.S. actions, arguing that the economics and logistics of Venezuelan oil make exploitation unfeasible. The discussion navigates complex themes of imperialism, domestic political theater, and the real impacts of military interventions, shedding light on who truly benefits in this geopolitical chess game.
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Oil Rhetoric Without A Business Case
- U.S. claims on Venezuelan oil sound like classic imperialist rhetoric but lack a clear business case.
- Adam Tooze argues the Trump operation reads as ex-post rationalization rather than corporate-driven strategy.
Orinoco's Size Masks High Costs
- Venezuela's Orinoco oil is vast but mostly heavy, high-cost crude that is expensive to produce.
- Tooze notes production costs can be as high as $80/barrel, making it unattractive versus nearby Guyana.
Why Majors Would Hesitate
- Major U.S. oil firms prefer low-cost, nearby investments like Guyana over rebuilding Venezuela's broken infrastructure.
- Tooze highlights refineries that use heavy crude are minor players and lack political clout to drive intervention.