TRIGGERnometry Sir John Curtice on What the Polls Tell Us About Brexit
Mar 24, 2019
Sir John Curtice, a world-renowned polling expert and political scientist, shares his insights on the unpredictable nature of polls and their failures in key elections like Brexit and Trump. He delves into the complexities of Brexit, revealing its polarization beyond traditional party lines and addressing how social values shape voter motivations. Curtice also discusses the potential implications of a second Brexit referendum and the need for polling to adapt to shifting public sentiments amidst rising populism.
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Accidental Start
- Sir John Curtice's career began unexpectedly in 1979 when his graduate supervisor, David Butler, needed help with a programmable calculator during an election night broadcast.
- From this, he helped pioneer instant election analysis using early PCs, eventually becoming the BBC's public face for elections.
Polling Challenges
- Polls struggled in recent elections like 2015 and 2017 due to changing demographics and voter turnout.
- Pollsters' attempts to adjust for these factors sometimes backfired, highlighting the challenge of accurate prediction.
Brexit's Disruption
- Brexit has disrupted traditional political lines, as it's not a left-right issue but a clash between social liberals and social conservatives.
- This divide makes it hard for two-party systems to represent the complex range of views on issues like immigration, sovereignty, and globalization.