The podcast discusses the potential delayed impact of rate hikes on the economy. The guest speaker argues that we haven't felt the credit effects yet and explores the implications for commercial real estate and debt refinancing.
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Quick takeaways
Higher interest rates may not have had a significant impact yet due to lags, but the credit effects are on their way, particularly in areas like commercial real estate.
Fiscal spending can have disinflationary impacts by driving specific sectors, improving capacity, and facilitating the transition to renewable energy.
Deep dives
The Impact of Fiscal Stimulus on Inflation
The interviewee explains that fiscal stimulus doesn't always lead to inflation and can actually have disinflationary effects. The spending during the pandemic was given to consumers to spend, while the current spending is aimed at capacity-building, such as the renewable boom in Texas. The interviewee also highlights the importance of understanding the purpose and outcome of fiscal spending, as it can drive specific sectors and improve capacity, which in turn can have disinflationary impacts.
Examining the Credit Channel and Capital Markets Channel
The interviewee discusses the distinction between the credit channel and the capital markets channel in relation to interest rates. While capital markets often price in rate hikes well in advance, the credit channel operates on a different timeline due to the complexities of financing and individual sector dynamics. The interviewee suggests that monitoring credit flows, financing terms, and specific industries such as commercial real estate can provide insights into potential systemic impacts of rising interest rates.
The Role of Fiscal Stimulus in the Energy Transition
The interviewee emphasizes the significance of fiscal spending in facilitating the transition to renewable energy. The government's increased role in this transition is essential, as the private sector alone cannot accomplish it. The spending aims to address supply constraints and support the necessary capacity building. The interviewee highlights the positive effects of renewables on disinflation through enhanced grid stability and increased energy capacity, particularly evident in Texas. This dynamic demonstrates how fiscal stimulus can have broader economic implications beyond inflation.
The Potential Risks and Implications of Persistently Low Spreads
The interviewee acknowledges the puzzles surrounding persistently low risk premiums on corporate bonds. While some factors, such as the removal of weak hands during trade wars, can account for this, the interviewee also raises the possibility that global capital flows might redirect funds to developed markets like the US. However, the interviewee also cautions that the credit market remains unpredictable, and potential surprises could emerge if leverage within certain sectors spills over to the broader financing system. Monitoring credit spreads and evaluating global capital allocation trends are key to detecting signs of systemic risks.
The Federal Reserve has hiked rates in rapid fashion, yet the evidence of their impact is scarce. Inflation is still hot (though it has come down quite a bit.) The unemployment rate remains very low. And economic growth appears to be robust. So does this mean that higher rates aren't significant? Or could it be that their impact has simply yet to be felt, and that it's still coming. On this episode, our guest argues the latter case that due to lags, we really haven't felt the pain from rate hikes yet. Julia Coronado, is the founder, CEO and president of Macro Policy Perspectives, as well as a Clinical Associate Professor of Finance at the University of Texas McCombs School of Business. She argues that we really haven't felt the credit effects yet from higher rates, but that they're on the way. In particular, we discuss the delayed impact on commercial real estate and other areas of the economy where debt may have been termed out, but will eventually need refinancing.