Wall Street Gets Greener But Fossil-Fuel Habit Lingers
Feb 7, 2024
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Exploring the importance of bank financing in the energy transition towards decarbonization and the concept of energy supply banking ratios. The role of banks in financing the energy sector and the need for more low carbon investment. The relationship between bank financing volumes and real economy capital investment in the energy sector and the impact of interest rate rises on energy financing. The net zero banking alliance and the Glasgow Financial Alliance for net zero and their goals to reduce finance emissions to zero by 2050.
To achieve a 1.5-degree warming scenario, there needs to be a ratio of $4 of clean energy investment for every $1 in fossil fuels, highlighting the need for increased investment in low-carbon technologies.
Bank financing is falling short of the target ratio for low-carbon to fossil fuel investment, highlighting the urgency for banks to align their financing with climate goals.
Deep dives
Importance of Bank Financing in the Energy Transition
Bank financing plays a critical role in facilitating the energy transition towards low-carbon technologies. To align with a 1.5-degree warming scenario, real economy investment and bank financing for low-carbon energy should have a ratio of 4 to 1, meaning $4 of clean energy investment for every $1 in fossil fuels. However, the current ratio of low-carbon to fossil fuel investment falls short of this target, with a ratio of around 0.75 to 1. This highlights the need for increased investment in low-carbon technologies to achieve decarbonization goals.
The Challenges in Achieving the Investment Ratio
Measuring progress in climate finance is essential to evaluate banks' contributions to climate change mitigation. Existing metrics focus on the volumes of financing going to fossil fuels or green initiatives, which do not provide adequate context. To address this, the podcast introduces the Energy Supply Banking Ratios (ESBR), which compare low-carbon to fossil fuel financing. The ESBR reveals that while real economy investment has achieved parity between low-carbon and fossil fuels, bank financing remains below the target ratio. This discrepancy calls for increased efforts to align bank financing with climate goals.
Impact of Interest Rate Rises on Energy Financing
The podcast explores the impact of rising interest rates on energy financing. Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs, making capital market financing less attractive. The analysis shows that as interest rates rose, energy supply financing volumes declined. The energy sector is sensitive to interest rate changes, and this finding provides evidence of their influence on financing decisions. Notably, China was an exception, as its lower interest rates led to increased financing for the energy supply sector, highlighting the role of macroeconomic factors.
Focus on Coal Financing and the Path to Decarbonization
The podcast sheds light on coal financing, considering its distinct climate impact compared to other fossil fuels. While low-carbon financing is crucial for decarbonization, coal financing remains a concern due to its significant climate consequences. The analysis reveals that coal financing accounted for about 13% of total fossil fuel bank financing in 2022, mostly concentrated in China. To achieve climate targets, a rapid decline in coal financing is necessary, especially considering the drastic impact of coal on global warming.
For every dollar supporting fossil-fuel supply, at least $4 must be put towards low-carbon energy this decade to keep the world on track to limit warming to 1.5C. But are the capital flows of corporations and financial institutions anywhere close to this balance? BloombergNEF has devised the Energy Supply Investment and Bank-Facilitated Financing Ratios to find out.
On today’s show, Dana is joined by two of BNEF’s Sustainable Finance Associates, Trina White and Ryan Loughead. Together they discuss how energy financing varies by geography, how the sector has been performing against the wider market for debt and equity, and the ratios required to 2030 and in the decades ahead.
Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal, on bnef.com or on the BNEF mobile app.