#749 - Seth Stephens-Davidowitz - The Hidden Statistics That Control The NBA
Feb 24, 2024
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Seth Stephens-Davidowitz, a data scientist and economist, reveals fascinating insights about the NBA using advanced AI techniques. He discusses the impact of height on player success, noting that seven-footers have remarkable chances to make the league. Seth also explores how genetics, socio-economic factors, and early exposure to basketball shape talent. He delves into the basketball draft system, critiquing how flashy traits often overshadow essential skills in evaluations. Discover the intriguing interplay of self-belief and performance metrics, transforming our understanding of the game!
Players' hand size crucial for basketball success.
Taller players underperform in high-pressure situations.
NBA talent often comes from stable, upper-middle-class backgrounds.
Deep dives
Genetics and Basketball Success
Height, hand size, and other genetically influenced traits heavily impact basketball success. Identical twins have a high representation in the NBA, indicating genetic influence. Players' hand size significantly affects their performance, with larger hands correlating with better outcomes, especially in free-throw shooting.
Basketball Choking and Height
Taller NBA players are more likely to choke under pressure, attributed to less selective pressure on their overall skill level. Choking in basketball is more prevalent compared to other sports, linking height to this phenomenon. Height-related advantages may contribute to a lack of necessity for exceptional mental toughness in taller players.
Socioeconomic Background and NBA Players
Contrary to conventional wisdom, NBA talent is often sourced from stable, upper-middle-class backgrounds rather than impoverished ones. Names of NBA players reflect socioeconomic status, with common names indicating higher backgrounds. Sons of NBA players exhibit exceptional free-throw shooting skills, highlighting early coaching advantages.
Trends in NBA Player Backgrounds
A study reveals that NBA players' backgrounds are more likely to be from stable, upper-middle-class families, challenging the belief that NBA talent emerges from rough circumstances. Subtle cues like players' names and free-throw shooting skills reflect varied socioeconomic backgrounds within the NBA.
Impact of Elite Colleges on Career Success
Attending top-tier colleges like Harvard, Stanford, and Ivy League schools can provide significant early advantages in career opportunities, such as gaining entry into elite graduate schools or prestigious firms like McKinsey or Google. Similarly, in basketball, players from universities like Duke, North Carolina, and Kentucky are more likely to be drafted into the NBA, offering them an initial edge in their careers. However, in the long run, the data suggests that attending these elite colleges does not significantly impact long-term success, as evidenced by individuals like Warren Buffett and Paul Millsap who achieved success despite not attending such prestigious institutions.
Value of Hard Work in Achieving Goals
While hard work can lead to incremental improvements and success in certain fields like basketball, where genetic factors like height play a significant role, its impact may be limited in changing one's inherent abilities drastically. Players like Michael Jordan, known for their work ethic, outshine those with immense natural talent like Shaquille O'Neal, showcasing the importance of consistent improvement over relying solely on natural gifts. In pursuits where genetics play a smaller role, such as equestrian riding or skiing, hard work can substantially enhance skills, offering more room for growth and achievement.
Seth Stephens-Davidowitz is a data scientist, economist and author.
Basketball is one of the most popular sports on the planet. Seth has used advanced AI to statistically analyse everything about the players, their backgrounds, hand-span, height, first names and more to uncover some of the wildest trends in the game.
Expect to learn what percentage of American men over 7 feet tall are in the NBA, why there is a huge outlier of the most common name of all NBA players, who the best height-adjusted player of all time is, just how important genetics are in basketball, whether the Draft is effective and much more...
