Macro Voices MacroVoices #503 Adam Rozencwajg: Gold, Oil & Uranium
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Oct 23, 2025 
Adam Rozencwajg, a commodities portfolio manager, dives into the intriguing world of gold, oil, and uranium. He explains why recent fluctuations in gold prices are just a pause in a larger bull market, while central banks’ buying is driven by a shift away from dollar assets. Rozencwajg also discusses the complexities of oil’s negative perception and suggests that market narratives are flawed. For uranium, he highlights a tightening market with risks, including geopolitical factors, making it a hot topic for investors.
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Gold Driven By Inventory Microstructure
- Gold's supply-demand is dominated by above-ground stocks, so price moves by trading that inventory rather than mine flow.
- Central bank buying (China, India, Brazil) is price-insensitive and supports a continued gold bull market.
Monetary Regime Change Fuels Commodity Bulls
- Major commodity bull markets begin with monetary-regime shocks that devalue paper assets relative to real assets.
- Current shifts (dollar strategy, China renminbi/gold moves) place us in a similar regime-change neighborhood.
Oil's Capitulation Masks Structural Risk
- Oil is deeply out of favor and priced like a 'barbarous relic,' creating asymmetric upside if fundamentals tighten.
- Shale growth has rolled over and is the key structural supply risk that can trigger a prolonged oil bull market.