Dwarkesh Podcast

Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution

Jun 11, 2024

Experts Francois Chollet and Mike Knoop discuss why LLMs won't lead to AGI and introduce a $1 million ARC-AGI Prize. Topics include the ARC benchmark, skill vs intelligence, AI progress, and possible solutions to the ARC Prize.

01:33:53

Creator website

Episode guests

Mike Knoop

Francois Chollet

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Quick takeaways

Arc benchmark emphasizes core knowledge over memorization, challenging machine learning models like LLMs.

True intelligence requires adaptability to novel tasks, highlighting the distinction between memorization and genuine reasoning.

Proposed hybrid approach combines program synthesis and deep learning for efficient reasoning, bridging intuition-driven pattern recognition with on-the-fly synthesis.

Deep dives

Introduction of Arc Benchmark and the Need for a Prize

The podcast delves into the launch of a million-dollar prize to solve the Arc benchmark, created as an IQ test for machine intelligence. Francois Chollet, an AI researcher at Google and creator of Keras, collaborates with Mike Knoth, the co-founder of Zapier, to introduce this prize. Arc differs from other benchmarks as it focuses on core knowledge rather than extensive memorization, challenging models like LLMs that have struggled with its novelty. The development of this prize stemmed from the realization of the slow progress made towards achieving AGI in the context of the Arc benchmark.

Skill vs. Intelligence

01:18

Open Innovation for Progress and Breakthroughs

01:55

Mix of Pattern Matching and Reasoning in Learning

01:05

Hybrid System of Discrete Program Search and Deep Learning

01:27

Intro

2min

Exploring Skepticism Towards Large Language Models and the Path to AGI

2min

Exploring the Essence of True Intelligence and Adaptability

3min

Challenges in Developing Multimodal Models for Spatial Reasoning

13min

Exploring Intelligence, Reasoning, and Benchmark Tasks

18min

Exploring Program Synthesis in Transformer Models and the Path to AGI

2min

Exploring the Challenges of ARC Intelligence Test and Pathfinding Algorithms in AGI

3min

Memorization vs. Reasoning in Human Learning and Large Language Models

17min

Challenges and Solutions in Achieving Artificial General Intelligence

31min

10.

The Importance of Core Knowledge in Language Models

4min

Here is my conversation with Francois Chollet and Mike Knoop on the $1 million ARC-AGI Prize they're launching today.

I did a bunch of socratic grilling throughout, but Francois’s arguments about why LLMs won’t lead to AGI are very interesting and worth thinking through.

It was really fun discussing/debating the cruxes. Enjoy!

Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here.

Timestamps

(00:00:00) – The ARC benchmark

(00:11:10) – Why LLMs struggle with ARC

(00:19:00) – Skill vs intelligence

(00:27:55) - Do we need “AGI” to automate most jobs?

(00:48:28) – Future of AI progress: deep learning + program synthesis

(01:00:40) – How Mike Knoop got nerd-sniped by ARC

(01:08:37) – Million $ ARC Prize

(01:10:33) – Resisting benchmark saturation

(01:18:08) – ARC scores on frontier vs open source models

(01:26:19) – Possible solutions to ARC Prize

Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe

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Dwarkesh Podcast

Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

Deep dives

Introduction of Arc Benchmark and the Need for a Prize

Arc Benchmark Design and Resistance to Memorization

Conversation on General Intelligence and ML Model Performance on Arc

Hybrid Approach for Achieving AGI and Future Directions

Challenging ARK Tests Innovative AI Approaches

Annual ARK Competition with Substantial Prizes

Skill vs. Intelligence

Open Innovation for Progress and Breakthroughs

Mix of Pattern Matching and Reasoning in Learning

Hybrid System of Discrete Program Search and Deep Learning

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Dwarkesh Podcast

Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop - LLMs won’t lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true solution

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

Deep dives

Introduction of Arc Benchmark and the Need for a Prize

Arc Benchmark Design and Resistance to Memorization

Conversation on General Intelligence and ML Model Performance on Arc

Hybrid Approach for Achieving AGI and Future Directions

Challenging ARK Tests Innovative AI Approaches

Annual ARK Competition with Substantial Prizes

Skill vs. Intelligence

Open Innovation for Progress and Breakthroughs

Mix of Pattern Matching and Reasoning in Learning

Hybrid System of Discrete Program Search and Deep Learning

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