Top Traders Unplugged

SI378: When Prices Stop Making Sense ft. Mark Rzepczynski

46 snips
Dec 13, 2025
Guest
Mark Rzepczynski
Mark Rzepczynski, an experienced market strategist and academic, dives deep into the complexities of today's financial markets. He discusses how uncertainty, rather than predictability, shapes investing decisions, especially in light of recent Federal Reserve actions. The conversation covers the challenges of distinguishing signals from noise, the implications of market narratives, and the risks of bubbles fueled by analyst optimism and rising leverage. Rzepczynski also touches on the evolving landscape of safe assets and the momentum behind market trends.
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INSIGHT

Messy Fed Raises Trading Uncertainty

  • The Fed is a "messy" institution when members dissent, which increases policy uncertainty for markets.
  • Mark Rzepczynski warns systematic traders to expect higher uncertainty and risk in the interest-rate complex in 2026.
ADVICE

Prioritize Smoothed Price Signals

  • Focus on signal-versus-noise and prefer price-based signals when fundamentals produce conflicting messages.
  • Use smoothing (e.g., moving averages) to improve signal extraction from noisy prices.
INSIGHT

Term Premium And Bonds' Diversifier Role

  • With projected growth plus inflation, 10-year yields imply a low or near-zero term premium.
  • Mark suggests bonds may no longer serve reliably as the portfolio diversifier they once were.
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