SI378: When Prices Stop Making Sense ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Top Traders Unplugged
Signals Versus Noise for Systematic Models
Mark explains signal-to-noise tradeoffs, volatility versus unmeasurable uncertainty, and model choices around Fed announcements.
This episode examines markets through the lens of uncertainty rather than prediction. As the Federal Reserve delivers a rate cut amid dissent and conflicting signals, Alan and Mark explore what it means for systematic investors navigating noisy data, fragile liquidity and shifting regimes. The conversation moves from Fed credibility and term premia to bubbles, leverage and the limits of valuation in an environment shaped by narratives as much as fundamentals. Along the way, they return to a core question at the heart of systematic investing: when uncertainty rises and explanations multiply, should prices remain the final arbiter of risk, signal and portfolio design?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor series
00:23 - Market context and recent CTA performance
02:41 - Initial reactions to the Fed decision and rate cut
03:12 - A messy Fed and the problem of dissenting signals
06:48 - Inflation, growth projections and policy uncertainty
08:31 - Signal versus noise in systematic trading models
11:22 - Employment data revisions and confidence in fundamentals
13:10 - Bond valuation, term premia and the question of safe assets
16:30 - Fiscal dominance, inflation risk and portfolio fragility
19:29 - Prices versus value and the limits of interpretation
22:47 - Narratives, reflexivity and momentum in markets
28:07 - Bubble dynamics, leverage and wealth effects
36:51 - Credit markets, AI investment and systemic risk
41:07 - Momentum, trend following and persistent market behavior
54:36 - Total portfolio approach and adaptive asset allocation
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
The AI-powered Podcast Player
