Upside #45 - Proxy Wars, Booming IPOs, & Defence Saves Europe

🎙️ Upside 45 Podcast – “Defence, Dirty Deals, and Disruption”

This week 

• EU defence spend motors - will it save us?
• European Space Agency military satellites 
• US-China competition - European opportunity?
• US IPOs up 30% this year, so far, so what
• British surgical robotics start-up -> sell-out

⏱️ [01:13] – Geopolitical Hotspots and Defence

• Iran’s global influence and diaspora
• Ukraine’s resistance to Israel-Iran dynamics
• Cautious optimism about regime change 
• WWIII has begun?

⏱️ [03:35] – Oil & Markets

•  Brent crude spikes (from $70 → $77, possibly $100+)
•  Shipping, inflation, and interest rates affected
•  Bank of England holds rates amid uncertainty

⏱️ [05:52] – Impact on Venture?

• Founders not immediately impacted, but long-term capital flow risks flagged
• Defence tension might dry up funding or shift VC attention

⏱️ [06:56] – Defence as a European Economic Engine?

• Defence our financial lifeline? But VC exposure to defence is tiny

⏱️ [09:35] – Unicorns in EU Defense Tech

• 3 recent unicorns: Helsing, Tekever, Quantum Systems
• Helsing shifts gear
• VCs rush in - BUT Sales cycles, procurement, regulation

⏱️ [12:38] – Helsing’s Capital & The VC Taboo 

• US firms: Lightspeed, Accel, General Catalyst 
• Homegrown capital is crucial to reducing 10x funding gap with US
• EIF restricts arms/weapons investments
• Helsing’s value as a “reference company” for LPs

⏱️ [18:51] – ESA’s Satellite Plans

• EU Space Agency wants €1B+ to build military satellite network.

⏱️ [22:15] – Iris vs Starlink Context

• Iris <> Starlink
• EU must move fast on sovereignty or risk dependence

⏱️ [23:59] – NASA Cuts vs ESA Budgets

• NASA’s proposed 25% cut
• Europe’s ESA increasing funding—ironically divergent paths

⏱️ [25:52] – China, Trade Wars, and Supply Chains

• EU’s dependence on Chinese imports (clean tech, chemicals) 
• Fear of trade dumping post US-China de-coupling 
• Rare earth constraints impacting defence and auto industries

⏱️ [29:45] – Tariff Timelines

• July 9 tariff decision
• Potential EU-US mini deal to avoid Trump’s punitive tariffs
• Pharmaceuticals next

⏱️ [32:00] – IPO Boom in the US 

• Chime, Circle, CoreWeave IPOs—massive post-IPO pops 
• Klarna leads EU pipeline

⏱️ [34:04] – IPO vs Private Capital

• Bill Gurley’s hatred of bankers
• Private markets still offering better valuations
• SPACs are back!

⏱️ [36:25] – Surgical Robots and CMR Surgical

• CMR (Cambridge Medical Robotics)
• Raised $1B, now eyeing $4B exit
• Premature exit
• CMR’s potential lost
• Scale homegrown tech more aggressively

⏱️ [44:45] – Deed of the Week

• Daniel Ek’s €600M into Helsing
• Paris-based Nabla raises $70M Series C
• Scale AI deal closes in one week
• Fastest capital deployment of its kind; no FTC review needed

⏱️ [49:05] – Founders in Government

• Alex Depledge named UK entrepreneurship advisor
• Praise for founders like Matt Clifford shaping UK tech policy

⏱️ [51:10] – Meta’s AI Talent War

• Meta’s aggressive poaching of OpenAI talent
• AI job market likened to football transfer season
• Pay off or backfire?