EI Weekly Listen — Mary Elise Sarotte on how a Second Cold War could have been averted
Feb 28, 2025
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Mary Elise Sarotte, a renowned historian specializing in US-Russia relations, discusses the intricate dynamics of NATO's expansion in the 1990s. She examines how this expansion may have contributed to current geopolitical tensions, particularly under Vladimir Putin's leadership. Sarotte critically reflects on the historical miscalculations that have shaped U.S.-Russia relations since the Cold War. She offers insights into the strategic challenges NATO faces today, especially regarding the aspirations of Finland and Sweden amidst rising tensions with Russia.
NATO's post-Cold War expansion, while justified, failed to account for its negative impact on Russian relations and democracy.
The ongoing conflict between authoritarianism and democracy demands careful NATO strategies to avoid escalating tensions with Russia.
Deep dives
Putin's Aggression and NATO's Response
The renewed aggression from Russia, marked by the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, highlighted the significant threat Putin poses to democracy and liberty in Europe. This marked a dramatic shift in NATO's strategy, which had previously been focused on the rising influence of China. NATO officially identified Russia as the primary threat, necessitating a reversal from previous cooperative efforts back to confrontation. This change underscored NATO's role as a defender of peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic region, once again emphasizing the ongoing conflict between authoritarianism and democratic values.
The Complicated Legacy of NATO Expansion
The expansion of NATO after the Cold War, particularly during the 1990s, has been pivotal in shaping the current geopolitical landscape. Initial decisions made by U.S. Presidents Bush and Clinton to promote NATO membership for Eastern European states inadvertently heightened tensions with Russia. While NATO enlargement was justified based on 1990s geopolitics, the manner in which it was implemented neglected the potential repercussions on Russian democracy and its relations with the West. The failure to consider alternative approaches allowed relations to deteriorate rather than fostering a more stable European environment.
Learning from History for Future Challenges
In light of the current geopolitical climate, where Finland and Sweden seek NATO membership, lessons from the past should be heeded. Historical precedents indicate that NATO must balance its expansion efforts with strategies that mitigate tensions with Russia. Examining previous decisions can help avoid escalating conflicts that characterized earlier relations with Moscow. A careful approach is essential to defend Western values and liberties while avoiding a prolonged and damaging confrontation with an increasingly assertive Russia.
Image: The 'You are leaving The American Sector' sign at the Checkpoint Charlie crossing point, Berlin Wall. Credit: Greg Balfour Evans / Alamy Stock Photo
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