Dr. Edward Altman, a renowned financial metrics researcher and creator of the Altman Z-Score, dives into the intriguing world of zombie companies—organizations that persist despite financial distress. He discusses how these firms misallocate resources, impede competition, and contribute to economic stagnation. With examples like Alitalia, Altman highlights the impact of government policies and interest rate subsidies that keep these non-viable entities afloat. The emergence of zombie companies in countries like Australia and Canada further emphasizes the global reach of this troubling trend.
Zombie companies, defined by low Z-scores and difficulty meeting interest payments, pose significant risks to economic productivity and resource allocation.
The existence of developed leverage finance markets allows insolvent firms to persist, leading to inefficient capital allocation and broader economic challenges.
Deep dives
Defining Zombie Companies
Zombie companies are generally defined as firms that are insolvent yet continue to operate over extended periods, typically three to five years. A standard definition includes companies that struggle to meet their interest obligations, indicated by an interest coverage ratio below one. However, recent research suggests that this definition might be too broad, as it could include over 20% of listed companies in the U.S. Instead, a more refined definition combines this ratio with a Z-score indicating a high probability of default, resulting in a smaller ratio of zombie companies, approximately 8% in the U.S.
Economic Impact of Zombie Companies
Zombie companies can significantly affect an economy by misallocating resources and reducing overall productivity. These firms often lead to disinflation, as they attempt to survive by lowering prices, which can trigger a downward price spiral in competitive sectors. For instance, a zombie retailer lowering prices may force competitors to follow suit, leading to excess supply of goods and services. This results not only in reduced investment and growth but also contributes to lower capacity utilization across industries.
Financial Markets and Zombie Creation
The presence of developed leverage finance markets can inadvertently sustain zombie firms, allowing companies that otherwise would not qualify for financing to continue operating. In the U.S., an estimated 28% of triple-C rated bonds are tied to zombie companies, illustrating how sophisticated capital markets enable continued existence despite poor financial health. This results in capital being tied up in inefficient firms, contributing to higher zombie ratios. The sustained support for these companies can stem from a reluctance to allow bankruptcies due to fears of job losses and economic instability.
Zombie companies are businesses that, despite being insolvent, manage to survive for extended periods. Traditionally, these companies are defined by their inability to cover interest payments, but a more refined definition points to companies with low Z-scores, indicating a high probability of default. Over the past three decades, the prevalence of zombie companies has surged, especially in the US, leading to concerns about their broader impact on the economy.
The growing number of zombie companies contributes to the misallocation of resources, disinflation, and reduced productivity. Although zombie companies are inefficient, they continue operating for years due to financial and structural support.
In this episode of Cloud 9fin, distressed debt reporter Max Reyes sits down with Dr. Edward Altman, professor emeritus at the NYU Stern School of Business and famous for developing the Altman Z-Score, to talk about what defines zombie companies, their prevalence and the negative effects they have on the economy.
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