Steve Hou, a Bloomberg Indices Quant Researcher specializing in systematic investment strategies, joins the discussion on the relentless search for ‘alpha’ in investments. He highlights the crucial role of consistent R&D spending as a predictor of innovative success. The conversation also covers how AI is transforming traditional industries and the importance of timely investments in turnaround companies. With insights on niche markets like chocolate stocks and the significance of shareholder yield, Hou provides a smart roadmap for savvy investors.
Focusing on year-on-year growth in R&D spending identifies innovative companies that are more likely to succeed over time.
Examining the stability of gross margins reveals a company's pricing power, highlighting hidden investment opportunities in niche markets.
Deep dives
Open Source AI and Innovation
Open source AI models, such as Meta's Llama, are revolutionizing the tech landscape by making advanced technologies accessible to a broader audience. Startups like RightSee leverage these tools to create innovative solutions, exemplified by Job Search Genius, which assists job seekers in crafting resumes, practicing interviews, and negotiating salaries. This democratization of technology allows smaller firms to compete and bring novel ideas to market without the burden of high costs associated with proprietary software. The emphasis on open source AI underscores its potential to stimulate innovation across various sectors, benefiting both developers and users alike.
Role of R&D in Identifying Innovative Companies
A systematic approach to identifying innovation focuses on a company's consistent R&D expenditure rather than merely the total amount spent. Research indicates that firms showing year-on-year growth in R&D spending over three consecutive years are more likely to yield successful innovations. This finding distinguishes innovative companies from those that may spend heavily without meaningful outcomes, especially during market bubbles. By using R&D trends as a robust metric, investors can identify high-potential firms, including notable examples in pharmaceuticals and AI technologies.
Understanding Pricing Power
Analyzing pricing power requires examining gross margin stability rather than merely looking at profit margins or profit levels. Companies that exhibit consistent gross margins over time are typically able to pass costs onto consumers, indicating strong pricing power. This method allows investors to identify companies in niche markets that may otherwise go unnoticed, providing opportunities in less obvious sectors. Examples include firms that supply essential goods or services, where demand remains steady regardless of market fluctuations.
Identifying Turnaround Companies through Analyst Ratings
An innovative investment strategy involves focusing on companies whose analyst ratings are improving rather than seeking highly-rated stocks. By investing in companies that analysts are beginning to favor, investors can potentially capture significant gains before sentiment shifts fully into the market. This approach highlights the importance of timing and market momentum, as analysts tend to react to changes in company fundamentals rather than predict them in advance. Identifying turnaround candidates, like Oracle and Hershey's, showcases the potential for recovery and profitability in lesser-known stocks.
All investors look for an edge. You only make real money by having “alpha,” as the jargon goes. On this week’s episode of Merryn Talks Money, host Merryn Somerset Webb is joined by a guest who knows all about the quest for advantage: Bloomberg Indices Quant Researcher Steve Hou.
Put simply, Hou’s job is to find what “works” in markets and then find ways to capture it for investors. So what’s he been investigating? Recent topics include how to identify innovative companies and the role of research and development spending within that. It’s more complicated than you might expect.