Keep on truckin’: Will the US continue to outperform other markets?
Jan 14, 2025
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Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, head of the Investment Strategy Group at Goldman Sachs Wealth Management, shares her insights on the enduring dominance of the U.S. equities market. She discusses the robust outlook for U.S. investments, despite current high valuations, and the need for a strategic shift toward private investments. The conversation also covers China's economic struggles compared to Japan, the evolving role of gold, and the importance of strategic asset allocation to navigate market volatility effectively.
The U.S. economy's dominance is expected to persist into 2025, maintaining the preeminence of U.S. equities amidst market volatility.
Strategic asset allocation, favoring U.S. equities and private assets, is recommended over speculative investments like Bitcoin and gold as inflation hedges.
Deep dives
U.S. Economic Preeminence
The discussion emphasizes the continued dominance of the U.S. economy, reflected in the theme of 'Keep On Truckin'' used in the investment outlook. This year, U.S. preeminence is underscored as the gap between the U.S. and other countries widens, with the consensus that this trend will persist into 2025. Despite high valuations, the expectation remains that a strong U.S. GDP growth rate of around 2.3% will support earnings growth, making current valuations manageable. This outlook suggests that investors should maintain their positions in U.S. equities despite market volatility.
Strategic Asset Allocation Recommendations
In terms of asset allocation, the recommendation leans towards being overweight in U.S. equities, acknowledging the shift in the overall index weight due to their continued outperformance. The strategy includes a minor reduction in non-U equities, reallocating to private assets such as buyout and growth equity, which are anticipated to outperform in the long run. The analysis reveals that even though non-U markets appear cheap, a more in-depth assessment reveals their relative value does not support significant reallocations away from U.S. equities. Thus, the long-term focus remains on U.S. preeminence and its economic resilience.
Market Responses to Interest Rates and Other Asset Classes
The outlook anticipates that interest rates may drop from current highs, with fixed income rates expected to decrease, alleviating fears of an adverse impact on corporate debt due to historically low interest burdens. Investors are advised to be cautious about gold as an inflation hedge, as research indicates it has not been effective in this role, with equities being a better alternative. Moreover, perspectives on Bitcoin reaffirm it as a speculative asset rather than a legitimate investment class, emphasizing the absence of underlying cash flows or earnings. Strategic asset allocation is recommended as the best defense against market volatility, rather than relying solely on hedging through derivatives.
Goldman Sachs’ Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, head of the Investment Strategy Group (ISG) and chief investment officer of Goldman Sachs Wealth Management, shares ISG’s 2025 outlook, Keep on Truckin’, and why the team’s long-held investment recommendations—US preeminence and staying invested—remain intact.