Unexpected Value - Poker · Daily Fantasy · Sports Betting #117: True Bum Hunting
Oct 1, 2025
John Miceli, known as the Funkonomist, joins to unravel the world of daily fantasy sports and betting. He discusses the skill gap in various formats and the pitfalls of low-stakes cash games. The conversation dives into prediction markets and the advantages of betting futures. John highlights the appeal of certain niche sports and offers insights into exploitable recreational players in head-to-head formats. Their banter also touches on the unique dynamics of snake drafts and the complexities of online poker compared to sports betting.
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Big $3 Win In NFL Week
- John Miceli won first place in the $3 primary NFL contest for Week 3 and cashed about $80,000. He confirmed it was the big $3 contest with an ~$800k prize pool and many entries.
Opponent Skill Often Trumps Your Skill
- Skill of opponents often matters more than your own skill when contest fields contain many weak players. Low-stakes, large-field contests can have wildly soft lineups that boost cash rates for sharp players.
Skip $1 Cash Games
- Avoid $1 cash games if you seek softer edges; prefer $3 minimums where recreational behavior is clearer. John Miceli suggests $3 as the minimum entry to reduce odd-skewed behavior in cash lobbies.