Asli Aydintasbas, a Visiting Fellow at the Brookings Institution specializing in Turkish and European politics, and Nathalie Tocci, Director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali focusing on European foreign policy, delve into Syria's recent political shift. They discuss the collapse of the al-Assad regime and the implications for regional stability. Topics include the rising opposition forces backed by Turkey, Europe's shifting foreign policy priorities amidst Ukraine, and the urgent need for a coherent strategy to address reconstruction and geopolitical tensions.
The fall of Assad's regime has led to geopolitical shifts in the region, raising concerns about Syria's future stability and governance.
Europe's response has prioritized immediate refugee concerns over strategic engagement in Syria's reconstruction, risking further neglect of crucial governance challenges.
Deep dives
The Fall of Bashar al-Assad and its Immediate Consequences
Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria came to an end following a swift military takeover by the opposition group HTS, marked by significant territorial gains including major cities like Aleppo and Damascus. This transition has resulted in a mix of relief and concern among both Syrians and international observers, given the long history of violence and displacement stemming from the civil war. Assad's abrupt flight to Russia for asylum highlights his regime's reliance on external support from allies like Iran and Russia, which has now diminished. The geopolitical ramifications of this shift are substantial, indicating a changing landscape in Middle Eastern politics and raising questions about the future stability of Syria.
Turkey's Role and the Complexity of HTS
Turkey's involvement has been instrumental in the success of HTS, with its support marked by a strategic cooperation that allowed opposition forces to advance rapidly. Despite HTS's jihadist roots and designation as a terrorist organization, its pragmatic approach has attracted a degree of acceptance, particularly in its governance of Idlib. Leaders such as Abu Mohammed Jolani have signaled intentions of inclusivity and tolerance regarding Syria's diverse population, although worries persist about a potential shift to a more repressive regime. The future of Syrian governance will depend on negotiations for a power-sharing arrangement that reflects the diverse demographics of the region.
European Responses and Humanitarian Concerns
The European response to the fall of Assad reflects a hesitance to engage meaningfully with Syria's reconstruction, focusing instead on the immediate plight of refugees. Many European nations have voiced intentions of easing asylum restrictions for Syrian refugees, showcasing a troubling lack of foresight regarding the complexities of governance and rebuilding in post-Assad Syria. Analysts emphasize the importance of a coordinated strategy involving humanitarian assistance and reconstruction efforts to mitigate the risks of a chaotic transition. Without a proactive approach, Europe risks confirming the worst stereotypes of neglect in engaging with the foundational changes occurring in Syria.
Future Prospects and Regional Implications
The ongoing instability in Syria raises critical questions about the prospects for unity and effective governance, with fears of a descent into a failed state if vested interests do not align. The possibility of a stronger Kurdish movement in response to the absence of Assad could exacerbate tensions with Turkey, complicating foreign relations in the region. Iran and Russia, having lost significant influence, might seek to regain a foothold but could struggle to do so following the public's resentment towards their backing of the Assad regime. Ultimately, the path forward will require nuanced diplomacy to navigate the interests of multiple players, including ensuring that the evolving power dynamics prioritize stability and inclusivity.
After 54 years of brutal rule in Syria, the al-Assad family’s reign came to an end last week. Following 13 years of devastating civil war, which saw over a million refugees flee to Europe, and millions more internally displaced within Syria, the rebel victory brought both a sense of relief and celebration while also bringing a sense of trepidation and anxiety about what might come next. To analyze the events in Syria and discuss Europe's role in the formation of a new state, Asli Aydintasbas and Nathalie Tocci join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this week's episode of Brussels Sprouts.
Asli Aydintasbas is Visiting Fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution.
Nathalie Tocci is the Director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali.
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