UBS On-Air: Market Moves Washington Weekly Podcast: Government shutdown update, US-China trade talks
Oct 15, 2025
Shane Lieberman, a Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor at UBS, dives into the current U.S. government shutdown, detailing which federal services are still operational and the impact on the workforce. He outlines the political maneuvering that keeps negotiations alive, highlighting tactics used by Republicans. The discussion also covers rising tensions in U.S.-China trade, including China's rare earths restrictions and tariff threats. Shane emphasizes market reactions and the uncertain prospects for a potential summit between Xi and Trump.
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Selective Pressure, Not Full Halt
- The current shutdown shows selective operational pressure rather than a full stoppage of critical functions.
- Air traffic control and law enforcement continue to work, muting some immediate fallout but creating uneven pressure on lawmakers.
Workforce Actions As Political Leverage
- The administration is using furloughs and reductions in force to change the workforce dynamic and increase leverage.
- These personnel actions draw Democratic attention but haven't yet forced a bipartisan resolution.
Stalemate May Become Prolonged
- Negotiations stalled in the first two weeks with potential for escalation as more furloughs and unpaid work spread.
- Republicans signal readiness for a prolonged shutdown to strengthen their bargaining position.