The National Security Podcast The evolution of strategic deterrence
Aug 21, 2025
Fiona Cunningham, a Political Science expert at the University of Pennsylvania, and Aaron Bateman, a historian at George Washington University, dive into the evolution of strategic deterrence. They unravel the concept of 'strategic substitution' and discuss China's innovative approach to deterrence. The conversation highlights the U.S.'s 'Golden Dome' missile defense system, and whether Australia should boost its capabilities in response to China's military modernization. Their insights explore the intersection of technology, national security, and historical crises.
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Strategic Deterrence Targets Leaders
- Strategic deterrence targets decision-makers with tools like nuclear weapons and non-nuclear systems that have strategic effects.
- Fiona Cunningham explains strategic deterrence focuses on what tools threaten leadership-level choices rather than battlefield commanders.
Space Shifted From Support To Target
- Space transformed from an enabling domain into an arena of dependency and vulnerability during and after the Cold War.
- Aaron Bateman notes the US became highly dependent on space systems while adversaries developed counter-space tools.
Deterrence Varies With Political Goals
- Nuclear deterrence logic is similar across powers, but what states threaten to deter differs by objectives and capabilities.
- Fiona Cunningham stresses China tailors nuclear roles to limited local wars rather than existential defense alone.
