The Daily A Guide to Election Night 2024
117 snips
Nov 5, 2024 
Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst for The New York Times, breaks down the rollercoaster of Election Night 2024. He discusses the emotional stakes for voters and how polling data paints a complicated picture. Cohn outlines potential scenarios and emphasizes the importance of battleground states like Georgia and North Carolina. He highlights the impact of mail-in voting and the expected delays from Western states. Additionally, Cohn warns about the misleading nature of early counts, which could affect public perception and add to the night’s uncertainty.
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Three Election Scenarios
- Three plausible scenarios exist for the 2024 election outcome: a decisive Harris victory, a decisive Trump victory, or another very close election.
- Each scenario is equally possible, and post-election, we could rationalize any outcome as predictable.
Early Election Night Focus
- Watch the Southern states first, as their polls close earliest and results come quickly.
- Expect early leads for Harris due to early voting, but Trump could catch up as Election Day votes are tallied.
Key Southern States
- Georgia and North Carolina are crucial swing states to watch closely.
- Their outcomes will significantly impact both candidates' paths to victory and the overall election narrative.