The President’s Inbox The India-Pakistan Crisis, With Šumit Ganguly
May 20, 2025
Šumit Ganguly, a senior fellow and director of the U.S.-India Program at Stanford's Hoover Institution, dives into the recent military clash between nuclear powers, India and Pakistan. He sheds light on the deadly terrorist attack that sparked the conflict and examines India’s shifting military strategies, moving from restraint to aggression. Ganguly discusses U.S. influence on ceasefire agreements and the role of China in the geopolitical landscape, emphasizing the fragile nature of treaties and the escalating tensions in South Asia.
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Modi's Calculated Response
- Modi responded robustly to the Kashmir attack to avoid political costs and maintain his credibility on normalcy in Kashmir.
- He faced audience costs driving a forceful response after earlier non-retaliation decisions by other governments.
India's Strategic Retaliation
- India took two weeks to plan its response, possibly to create ambiguity about timing and targets.
- The attack breached thresholds by using air power and striking deep inside Pakistan, near its military HQ.
Raising the Stakes in Conflict
- India's strike on Pakistani military bases and air defenses near Lahore raised stakes dangerously high.
- This escalation was unprecedented and increased risk of conflict spirals in a nuclear context.