WAGD: Restarting Nuclear Weapon Testing and Other Bad Ideas from Trump’s Brain Trust with author Jeffrey Lewis
Aug 23, 2024
auto_awesome
Jeffrey Lewis, a renowned nuclear expert and author, dives into the contentious proposal from former Trump officials to restart nuclear testing. He discusses the historical context of nuclear tests and their geopolitical implications. The conversation sheds light on the shift from physical tests to computer simulations and the complexities surrounding confidence in the reliability of nuclear weapons. Lewis also addresses the evolving global security landscape with advancements by rivals like China and Russia, challenging perceptions of U.S. deterrence.
Resuming nuclear testing would disadvantage the U.S. by providing valuable data to adversaries like China, undermining strategic advantages.
The confidence in nuclear arsenal reliability relies more on understanding design processes than on the quantity of tests conducted.
Deep dives
The Evolution of Nuclear Testing
Nuclear testing has evolved significantly since its inception, starting in the late 1940s and early 1950s when the understanding of nuclear technologies was rudimentary. Initial testing, often conducted in the atmosphere, aimed to collect data and validate weapon designs, allowing scientists to better grasp nuclear mechanics. As time progressed, the U.S. and other nuclear powers transitioned to underground testing, which limited data gathering for adversaries and increased data accuracy for the testing nation. This culminated in a comprehensive halt of nuclear tests in the early 1990s, once sufficient data was acquired, establishing a new era in international nuclear policy.
The Case Against Resuming Nuclear Tests
Calls to resume nuclear testing based on claims of validating arsenal reliability overlook the current landscape of nuclear technology and data accuracy. The podcast discusses how the U.S. no longer develops new nuclear weapons, but rather focuses on understanding existing arsenals through advanced computer simulations. This significant shift means that additional tests may yield minimal benefit for the U.S., while providing valuable data to countries like China, which have conducted fewer tests. Resuming testing would likely lock in a technological disadvantage for the U.S., undermining the strategic advantages previously gained through the comprehensive test ban.
Confidence and Reliability in Nuclear Arsenal
The reliability of a nuclear arsenal is closely tied to the confidence held by weapons designers, not merely quantitative testing. The podcast explains that past nuclear tests did not establish true statistical reliability, as tests were not conducted on every nuclear warhead, focusing instead on confidence in design processes. Moreover, true confidence is achievable through a thorough understanding of potential failure modes and proactive maintenance strategies, which have improved significantly since the end of testing. Consequently, it is argued that the U.S. currently possesses greater confidence in its nuclear deterrent capabilities, leaving the need for additional testing questionable.
Nuclear expert and author Jeffrey Lewis joins Jon to discuss proposals by former Trump officials to restart nuclear testing and how to manage the growing reliance on nuclear weapons in the world.