GD POLITICS Can Any Democrat Flip Texas?
Dec 11, 2025
Jacob Rubashkin, Deputy Editor at Inside Elections, dives into the fiery Texas Senate primary featuring Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett. He assesses her controversial candidacy and its potential to flip Texas amidst a charged political environment. The discussion also reveals insights on the impact of GOP nominees and contrasts Crockett's strategy with that of fellow candidate Tallarico. Additionally, they explore lessons from past Texas races and the dynamics shaping key Senate contests across the nation.
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Environment Often Trumps Candidate
- Statewide outcomes in Texas depend far more on the political environment than on any single candidate.
- Who the Republican nominee is matters, but the first 90 meters of the race are about national and state-level conditions.
Name ID Cuts Both Ways
- Name recognition gives Ken Paxton a different starting position than lesser-known Democrats.
- Paxton's universal ID creates inherent vulnerability that Democrats can exploit if he becomes the nominee.
GOP Primary Will Be Bloodier
- The Republican primary looks likelier to produce negative, expensive attacks than the Democratic primary.
- A bruising GOP primary could leave their eventual nominee weakened for the general election.