HousingWire Daily Bonus episode: Breaking down market chaos featuring Ivy Zelman, Logan Mohtashami and Dale Wettlaufer
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Apr 12, 2025 
Ivy Zelman, a renowned housing market analyst, joins Logan Mohtashami, a leading analyst known for his insight into economic recovery, and Dale Wettlaufer, an investment strategist at Bleecker Street Capital. They deep dive into current market chaos dominated by high mortgage rates and affordability issues. The trio discusses the implications of rising home inventories, the challenges of interest rates, and the housing affordability crisis facing young adults. They also evaluate how recent acquisitions might influence the industry's future.
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Housing Market Under Pressure
- The housing market faces pressure from decelerating pricing and stretched affordability, especially in new homes.
- Motivated sellers and builders' pricing strategies contribute to this pressure, potentially impacting starts and land prices.
Learning from Ivy Zelman
- Dale Wettlaufer, having learned from Ivy Zelman's expertise, became more cautious about the housing market's overvaluation 20 years ago.
- He noticed the disconnect between home price appreciation and cost of goods sold (COGS) for builders, which led him to short homebuilder stocks.
Existing vs. New Home Sales
- Despite high rates, the existing home sales market is performing better than expected in 2025, with positive purchase application and pending contract data.
- However, the new home sales market remains stressed due to affordability challenges and rising completion rates.