Global Data Pod Weekender: Debating the R word

Our baseline forecast incorporates sustained expansion but recession risks have become elevated – to a 40% probability – on concerns that aggressive US policies hit business and household sentiment. With the latest tariff increases set to push US core inflation above 4%ar next quarter, a household sector with a healthy balance will need to show a willingness to lower its saving rate to cushion this blow.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 28 March 2025.

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