Squawk Pod Labor Market Metrics in a Shutdown 10/1/25
Oct 1, 2025
Jake Sherman, co-founder of Punchbowl News, shares insights on the unexpected government shutdown and its implications for Congress. Nela Richardson, Chief Economist at ADP, discusses the slowdown in hiring momentum, emphasizing that alternative labor metrics can't fully replace BLS data. They also explore the potential economic fallout from federal furloughs and how private sector jobs might be affected. Listen in for their takes on trends, forecasts, and what this all means for the economy.
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Shutdown Strategy Hinges On Exhaustion
- Jake Sherman says Republicans are unlikely to negotiate and will repeatedly offer a clean CR to force Democratic defections.
- He predicts the fight will cycle, with exhaustion likely being the tipping point to reopen funding.
Private Data Helps But Doesn't Replace BLS
- Steve Liesman notes private-sector indicators can approximate BLS trends over time but can miss inflection points.
- He warns alternative data helps but does not replace government payroll reporting for total population counts.
Revisions Reveal Slower Hiring Momentum
- ADP reported private payrolls at minus 32,000 after re-benchmarking to BLS revisions that lowered recent growth rates.
- Neela Richardson says the narrative remains: hiring momentum has slowed since early 2025.