The Market Huddle
MH+ Ep.37 The Rules Are Changing (guest: Warren Pies)
May 1, 2024
Warren Pies from 3Fourteen Research predicts a 10% market correction and advises cash position increase. Discussions on rebalancing strategies, quantitative trading impact, recession predictions, data revisions, and evolving bonds and stocks relationship.
36:27
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Quick takeaways
- Potential 10% stock market correction looming due to recent gains and historical market patterns.
- Importance of frequent factor rebalancing and monitoring economic indicators for investment strategies.
Deep dives
Stock Market Forecast and Historic Performance
The speaker suggests that a 10% correction in the stock market might be imminent due to recent double-digit gains in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024. Drawing parallels with historical market patterns, particularly in a presidential election year, he highlights the potential for increased odds of a market correction. Noting past examples like the Eurozone crisis and Fed intervention in 2012, he recommends considering a cautious approach and possibly increasing cash positions.
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