575. Tinatin Japaridze - Maidan in Tbilisi - How Close to Ending is Russian Dream of Controlling Georgia?
Dec 20, 2024
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Tinatin Japaridze, an expert in Eurasian geopolitics and author of "Stalin’s Millennials," shares insights on the complex political landscape of Georgia. She compares grassroots movements in Tbilisi to Ukraine's Maidan protests, emphasizing their leaderless nature and the push for democracy. Tinatin discusses the Georgian government’s struggles against rising authoritarianism and critiques the West's lukewarm response. She underscores the resilience of protesters and the urgent need for meaningful international support to foster political change.
Despite their perceived fragility, authoritarian regimes in Russia and Georgia may tighten control rather than showing signs of weakness.
The leaderless nature of Georgia's current protests reflects a desire for systemic change, complicating organization yet emphasizing grassroots democratic aspirations.
Deep dives
The Resilience of Authoritarian Regimes
Despite the perceived fragility of authoritarian regimes like those in Russia, Belarus, and Georgia, their ability to maintain control should not be underestimated. As the geopolitical landscape shifts, leaders such as Putin are more likely to tighten their grip rather than show signs of weakness. The assessment that these leaders might be on the brink of collapse overlooks the entrenched resources and support they possess, including external backing from powerful allies. The situation requires nuanced understanding, as the facade of vulnerability may mask a dangerous potential for increased repression.
The Grassroots Movement in Georgia
Current protests in Georgia reflect a grassroots movement that is both a strength and a challenge due to its leaderless nature. While the lack of a central figure may prevent easy targeting by the government, it complicates the movement's organization and sustained momentum. The ongoing unrest resonates with historical sentiments from the late Soviet era, where citizens rallied around broader societal issues rather than political figures. This grassroots aspect indicates a deep desire for change that transcends party politics, signifying a critical moment in Georgia's democratic journey.
The Georgian Dream's Shift Toward Authoritarianism
The ruling Georgian Dream party has increasingly revealed its authoritarian tendencies, prioritizing power retention over democratic principles. Recent actions demonstrate a departure from valuing constitutional integrity and citizens' will, as the government embraces pro-Russian rhetoric and practices reminiscent of Moscow's influence. This has led to a growing disconnect between the government and the population, with many citizens feeling their European aspirations are being undermined. The potential dangers of state capture underscore the urgency for international support to help restore democratic norms and protect civil society.
The Need for Strong Western Response
A decisive Western response is critical in addressing the authoritarian drift in Georgia, with many citizens feeling abandoned amidst their struggle for democracy. While punitive measures against the Georgian Dream may seem punitive towards the populace, targeted actions focused on leadership accountability could preserve the country's democratic future. The growing frustration over the Western response reflects a perception of complacency regarding human rights violations in Georgia. Ultimately, the fate of Georgian democracy hinges on international engagement and concrete support to empower its citizens against rising autocratic control.
Tinatin Japaridze specializes in the geopolitics and security of
Eurasia, with a particular focus on the Russia-Ukraine war. She leads
Eurasia Group’s coverage of Georgia and Azerbaijan, including the
countries’ domestic and foreign policies, reforms, and leadership. Prior
to joining Eurasia Group, Tinatin spent more than 15 years working at
the intersection of communications and security. For several years,
Tinatin was the UN Bureau Chief for Eastern European media outlets, a UN
Radio host, and the producer of her own radio show on current affairs
and international security. She is a regular media contributor to The
Moscow Times, The Washington Post, and The Atlantic, among other
outlets. Her book “Stalin’s Millennials: Nostalgia, Trauma, and
Nationalism” was published in 2022.
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LINKS:
https://x.com/TinatinTweets
https://www.linkedin.com/in/tinatinjaparidze/
https://uc.web.ox.ac.uk/people/tinatin-japaridze
https://www.thecriticalmass.com/tinatin-japaridze
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BOOKS:
Stalin’s Millennials: Nostalgia, Trauma, and Nationalism (2022)
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https://www.gzeromedia.com/news/watching/georgias-parliament-advances-divisive-foreign-agents-bill
https://eurasianet.org/perspectives-russia-is-going-to-wake-up-to-a-very-difficult-reality
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