The Best Ever CRE Show JF 4119: Recession Edge, Millennial Spending Wave and a New CRE Cycle Ahead with John Chang
Dec 14, 2025
John Chang shares insights from the retail real estate sector, highlighting how uncertainty and job growth slowdown are shaping market decisions. He discusses the surprising health of consumer debt relative to income and savings. With millennials entering peak earning years, there's a projected surge in spending of $150 billion. Retail is leading the NCREIF return index and may play a key role in a potential real estate cycle shift in 2026. Chang also explores the implications of Fed rate cuts and labor dynamics influenced by immigration policies.
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ICSC Visit Informs Market Read
- John Chang attended ICSC New York and presented to investors, sharing conversations with top researchers and brokers.
- He uses those on-the-ground discussions to form his market read and upcoming webcast topics.
Jobs Slowdown Raises Recession Edge
- Employment growth has slowed sharply since mid-year, creating elevated recession risk despite a low official unemployment rate.
- John Chang warns this tepid job market will likely persist through much of 2026 and stretch decision-making across CRE.
Slowing Population Growth Lowers Demand
- Slower population growth from restrictive immigration policies reduces the number of jobs needed to keep unemployment steady.
- Chang warns this lowers GDP and softens long-term demand growth for real estate and consumption.