Market Trends: Predicting 2025 Through Historical Patterns

6 snips

Jan 10, 2025

Josh Brown, a stock market expert and insightful commentator, joins Rashad Bilal to discuss critical market predictions for 2025. They dive into historical S&P 500 performance, noting the rarity of consecutive robust years. The duo examines the influence of presidential cycles on market trends and scrutinizes the reliability of historical data. Brown highlights the impact of Fed policies and the unpredictable nature of tariffs, suggesting that both could introduce significant market volatility in the years ahead.

Ask episode

AI Snips

Chapters

Transcript

Episode notes

INSIGHT

Rare Market Returns & Presidential Cycles

The S&P 500 achieving consecutive 25% annual returns is historically rare, occurring only once before in '95-'97.
Presidential cycles suggest 2025 might be a weaker market year, following historical patterns.

INSIGHT

Data Limitations & Unique Market Conditions

Reliable stock market data only dates back to 1926, limiting the sample size for definitive predictions based on historical trends.
Current market conditions, with the Fed easing and a unique bull market start during rate hikes, further complicate predictions.

INSIGHT

Bullish Outlook with Volatility

The current bull market began while the Fed was raising rates, a historically unique situation.
Earnings growth and potential Fed rate cuts in 2025 support a bullish outlook, but tariff talks could introduce volatility.

Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode

Get the app

Welcome back to Market Mondays! In this engaging clip, Rashad Bilal hosts guest Josh Brown, delving deep into stock market trends, historical patterns, and what these might mean for the market in 2025.

*Key Highlights:*

1. *Historical S&P 500 Performance:* Rashad kicks off the discussion by highlighting the impressive S&P 500 returns over the past two years. Did you know the S&P has only achieved back-to-back 25% returns once in history, during 1995-1997? Discover why this rare event raises questions for the future.

2. *Presidential Cycles and Market Impact:* Rashad shares insights on the traditional market trends associated with the presidential cycle. Are we headed for a downturn in 2025? Josh weighs in on the historical data and its reliability.

3. *Data Reliability and Market Studies:* Josh emphasizes the importance of understanding data limitations. With dependable stock market data starting from 1926, he explains why making definitive forecasts from limited historical examples can be challenging.

4. *Fed Policies and Market Dynamics:* Learn about the unique situation of the ongoing bull market amidst Fed rate raises. Josh discusses potential Fed rate cuts and their implications on market volatility and earnings growth.

5. *Tariff Talks and Market Volatility:* Josh explains how the unpredictable nature of tariff announcements by the current administration could introduce volatility in the market. Hear his thoughts on the potential impact of trade discussions in 2025.

6. *Earnings Growth and Market Sentiment:* Despite historical trends, Josh presents a bullish outlook for the market, supported by projected earnings growth and the expectation of Fed rate cuts. However, he also cautions about technology sector performance and possible volatility.

7. *Realistic Market Expectations:* Rashad and Josh set realistic expectations for market returns. They underline that expecting a 25% gain annually for any index is unrealistic, aiming for a more grounded 7-12% as a norm.

*Conclusion:*

Josh concludes with a balanced view, expressing bullish sentiments while advising investors to remain alert to potential volatility introduced by the administration's policies. Investing with an informed perspective on historical trends and market factors is crucial.

Join us for this insightful clip as we navigate the complexities of market predictions, historical data, and economic policies. Don't miss out on these essential insights to make well-informed investment decisions.

🔔 *Don't forget to like, subscribe, and hit the notification bell to stay updated with our latest content!*

📈 *Follow us on our social media channels for more financial insights:*

#MarketMondays #StockMarket #InvestmentInsights #S&P500 #MarketTrends #InvestmentTips #FinancialAnalysis #FedPolicy #PresidentialCycle #MarketVolatility #TariffTalks #EarningsGrowth #HistoricalPatterns

Our Sponsors:
* Check out PNC Bank: https://www.pnc.com
* Check out Progressive: https://www.progressive.com
* Check out Square: https://square.com/go/eyl

Advertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands

Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy