A Deeper Dive The outlook for the restaurant industry the rest of this year
Oct 8, 2025
Rich Shank, a Senior Principal at Technomic, brings his expertise on the restaurant industry's current landscape. He highlights the uneven performance across sectors and emerging concerns regarding consumer spending. With nearly 30% of diners relying on discounts, he delves into the evolving nature of deal-making and the challenges faced by brands like Starbucks. Shank also discusses the impact of demographic shifts and labor availability on future growth. Tune in for an insightful look at the dynamics reshaping the dining experience.
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Uneven Industry Performance
- Restaurant performance is uneven and spotty across segments despite pockets of strength.
- Rich Shank warns tariffs, labor signals, and consumer confidence create clear downside risk into October.
Record Deal-Driven Visits
- Consumers are dining on deals at record rates, nearing 30% of visits.
- Chains are flooding the market with offers and even price moves, yet consumer spending still shows slowing trends.
Deals Are Broader, Checks Are Tighter
- The current definition of a "deal" is broader than prior downturns and includes loyalty and everyday value.
- Even fine dining guests manage checks tightly, showing worry across income tiers.