The Lawfare Podcast Lawfare Daily: The End of New START? With John Drennan and Matthew Sharp
Dec 4, 2025
John Drennan, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations specializing in U.S.-Russia relations, and Matthew Sharp, a fellow at MIT's Center for Nuclear Security Policy, dive into crucial discussions about the New START treaty's potential expiration in 2026. They explore its historical significance and the risks of linking arms control with geopolitical tensions like Ukraine. The duo also examines the implications of new Russian military systems and how emerging technologies and the global multipolar landscape might reshape arms control strategies.
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What New START Actually Does
- New START set verifiable, lowest negotiated caps on deployed strategic nuclear systems and warheads between the U.S. and Russia.
- Its intrusive verification regime and Bilateral Consultative Commission created transparency and predictability in the bilateral nuclear relationship.
Verification Paused, Limits Claimed
- Russia paused and then suspended New START verification after COVID and the 2022 invasion while claiming it kept the central limits.
- Putin later offered a one-year political extension covering only central limits starting Feb 2026.
2010: Arms Control As Policy Reboot
- New START fit into a 2010 push by the U.S. to re-engage in nonproliferation and disarmament diplomacy, boosting the NPT review outcomes.
- The treaty's signing reflected a broader U.S. strategy to restore arms control credibility after the Bush years.