"The Termites Are Out There Under Your Porch" Featuring the Bipartisan Policy Center

Today we were delighted to host the team from the Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC), a leading Washington NGO dedicated to bringing stakeholders together to address critical policy issues for the U.S. and find areas of alignment for action. Joining us for the session are Margaret Spellings, President and CEO, along with her colleagues David Hill, Executive Vice President of Energy, and Bill Hoagland, Senior Vice President. Margaret became CEO of BPC in 2023 and brings extensive leadership experience at both the state and federal levels, most recently serving as President & CEO of Texas 2036. Earlier in her career, Margaret served as White House Chief Domestic Policy Advisor, Senior Policy Advisor and Secretary of Education under George W. Bush. David has more than 25 years of energy experience, having served as General Counsel of the U.S. DOE and as DOE’s Deputy General Counsel for Energy Policy during the Bush administration, as well as Executive Vice President and General Counsel of NRG. Bill focuses on fiscal, health, and economic policy at BPC, following a long tenure on the U.S. Senate Staff and as VP of Public Policy at CIGNA Healthcare before joining BPC in 2012. We were thrilled to visit with Margaret, David, and Bill for their latest insights from Washington.
 
In our conversation, Margaret first outlines the BPC’s team structure and its dual focus on research and advocacy through bipartisan engagement on Capitol Hill. We discuss setbacks in U.S. education policy, including how 20 years of bipartisan federal accountability progress under Presidents Bush and Obama have been undone in recent years, highlighting the need to refocus on reading and evidence-based instruction. Bill provides an overview of the U.S. national debt, noting that politically untouchable programs dominate the budget and leave little room for meaningful reform. He flags that interest payments on the debt now exceed defense spending and describes the slow-building debt and energy crises as “termites under the porch,” noting that Washington only acts under strong leadership or in response to crisis. David shares his perspective on the need for durable, stable energy policy and the importance of long-term policy certainty to encourage private sector investment in infrastructure. We explore BPC’s efforts to modernize education and workforce policy to reflect today’s labor market, how private conversations often reveal more bipartisan consensus than public discourse suggests, and how BPC facilitates those critical dialogues. We also touch on the disconnect between Washington and the rest of the nation, the need to clearly communicate how policy failures impact everyday Americans, the challenges posed by outdated government technology, and much more. Thank you, Margaret, David, and Bill, for sharing your insights and expertise with us all!
 
Mike Bradley kicked us off with a few updates focused on Trump’s first 100 days, Canadian election results, and the recent Spain/Portugal power outage. The best word to describe Trump’s first 100 days would be volatility, or as we have aptly named it, Trumpatility! The 10yr bond yield has fallen ~40bps (to 4.2%) over this timeframe and the U.S. dollar has depreciated by ~6%. Two commodity standouts are WTI price, which has plunged ~$15/bbl to ~$61/bbl, and gold, up ~22% to ~$3,300/oz. From a broader equity standpoint, the S&P 500 was down ~8%, Nasdaq down ~10% and Russell 2000 down ~14%. The S&P 500 Volatility Index spiked by ~50% (and ~275% at its April 7th volatility peak). The Energy sector was down ~11% with Oil Services down ~28%, E&Ps down ~21%, Refiners down ~15%, U.S. Oil Majors down ~10%, Midstream down ~5% and Alternative Energy up ~5%. Electric Utilities were up ~2% while IPPs/Power Index was down ~18%. Regarding the Canadian election, Mark Carney’s Liberal Party eked out a narrow win Monday night against Poilievre’s Conservative Party but fell short of a majority in t