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Inflation as a Process
- Inflation is a process that occurs in waves, not a one-time event.
- The current decline in CPI doesn't negate the secular inflation thesis, as it remains above pre-pandemic levels.
Populism and Inflation
- Populist policies tend to be inflationary, as seen during Trump's first term.
- Trump's stronger mandate and a pre-existing inflationary environment suggest even greater inflationary pressure this term.
Gold, Bitcoin, and Politics
- Gold's post-election drop is a healthy correction, digesting gains and unwinding political uncertainty hedges.
- The rotation into Bitcoin reflects Trump's crypto-friendly stance, but gold's fundamentals remain strong.
